Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

German business morale dips from record high as retailers fret

Published 25/08/2017, 10:38
© Reuters. Containers are pictured at a loading terminal in the port of Kiel

By Michael Nienaber

BERLIN (Reuters) - German business confidence fell less than expected in August after climbing to three record highs in a row, suggesting that a consumption-led upswing in Europe's largest economy will continue despite concern about a car emissions scandal.

The Munich-based Ifo economic institute said on Friday its business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 companies, edged down to 115.9 from 116.0 in July. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a drop to 115.5.

"Germany's economy remains on track for growth," Ifo chief Clemens Fuest said in a statement.

The drop was caused by companies taking a slightly less positive view of the current business situation. However, managers' business outlook for the next six months improved to its highest level since January 2014, the survey showed.

A sector breakdown of the Ifo figures showed the main drag came from retailing. Sentiment improved against the trend in manufacturing and construction.

Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe linked the drop in retailing to the emissions scandal and cartel allegations engulfing Germany's car industry, which is the country's biggest exporter and employs some 800,000 people.

"Car retailers are feeling the restraint of customers," Wohlrabe said, although he noted the emission scandal did not seem to have hit business morale in the automobile industry itself.

NO LIMIT

Wohlrabe said that the German economy appeared unaffected by global political developments, adding: "The German economy has not reached a growth limit. There is still room on the upside."

The Ifo index came after data that showed the economy continued to expand in the second quarter, growing by 0.6 percent on the quarter and by 2.1 percent on the year, driven by strong private consumption.

"The German economy is humming. The strong growth momentum that we saw in the first half of the year will carry into the third quarter," KfW bank chief economist Joerg Zeuner said.

Following the release of the GDP data, KfW raised its 2017 growth forecast for the German economy to a calendar-adjusted 2.3 percent from its previous estimate of 1.9 percent.

"With less than one month to go before Germany's federal election, today's data bode well for Angela Merkel's already-strong prospects for re-election," Capital Economics analyst Stephen Brown said.

Still, sentiment indicators published earlier this week have painted a rather mixed picture of the economic outlook.

© Reuters. Containers are pictured at a loading terminal in the port of Kiel

Investor morale fell the third month in a row amid concerns that the car emissions scandal could damage the economy in the medium term. A survey of purchasing managers showed, however, that manufacturing and services grew faster in August.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.