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Forex - Weekly outlook: November 28 - December 2

Published 27/11/2016, 11:30
© Reuters.  Dollar index retreats in thin holiday trade on Friday after hitting 2003 highs
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Investing.com - The dollar fell against a currency basket in holiday-thinned trade on Friday as investors took profits after a powerful rally that propelled the U.S. currency to almost 14-year highs.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.28% at 101.48 late Friday.

U.S. markets were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and Friday was a half-day session.

On Thursday, the index surged to highs of 102.07, a level not seen since April 2003.

The index has risen around 6% in the last two months amid expectations that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under the Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation.

The dollar has also been boosted by the view that a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December is a near certainty.

According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, odds for a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting are at 95.4%.

Expectations for higher interest rates typically boost the dollar by making it more attractive to yield seeking investors.

The dollar eased against the yen, with USD/JPY dipping 0.12% to 113.22, not far from the eight-month high of 113.88 hit earlier. For the week, the pair gained 2.06%.

The euro pushed higher, with EUR/USD rising 0.31% to 1.0586 late Friday after falling to lows of 1.0517 on Thursday, the weakest level since December 2015.

The dollar fell 0.27% against the Swiss franc and 0.22% against the pound.

In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November as well as data on U.S. economic growth and manufacturing for fresh indications on the likelihood of a December rate hike.

Investors will also be watching euro zone inflation data and manufacturing reports out of the U.K. and China.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 28

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to testify about the ECB’s outlook on economic and monetary developments and the consequences of Brexit to the Economic Committee in the European Parliament.

Tuesday, November 29

Japan is to release data on household spending.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Toronto.

Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation.

The U.S. is to produce revised data on third quarter GDP and a report on consumer confidence.

New York Fed President William Dudley is to speak at an event in Puerto Rico.

Wednesday, November 30

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is to hold a meeting in Vienna aimed at finalizing the details of a proposed output cut.

Australia is to release data on building approvals.

Germany is to report on retail sales and the change in the number of people unemployed.

The euro zone is to release a preliminary estimate of consumer price inflation.

ECB head Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Madrid.

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report for November, as well data on pending home sales and the Chicago PMI.

Canada is to release its monthly GDP report.

Thursday, December 1

Australia is to release data on private capital expenditure.

China is to release its official manufacturing and services PMI’s, along with the Caixin manufacturing PMI.

The U.K. is to release its manufacturing PMI.

The U.S. is to release figures on initial jobless claims and the Institute for Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.

Friday, December 2

Australia is to produce data on retail sales.

The U.K. is to release its construction PMI.

Canada is to publish its employment report for November.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the non-farm payrolls report for November.

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