Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
💎 Reveal Undervalued Stocks Hiding in Any Market Get Started

Marketmind: Surprise surprise!

Economy Feb 08, 2023 23:02
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People walk past a screen displaying the Hang Seng stock index outside Hong Kong Exchanges, in Hong Kong, China July 19, 2022. REUTERS/Lam Yik
Add to/Remove from a Portfolio
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

With little on Thursday's Asian economic data docket aside from Taiwanese inflation, investors will take their cue from Wall Street's slide and deluge of Fed commentary on Wednesday, and await some key Chinese indicators in the days ahead.

China's economy is revving up its engines again after a prolonged COVID-19 lockdown stalling, and economists are having to adjust their forecasts just as quickly.

Citi's economic surprises index for China is now at its highest level since May last year. This may surprise no one, given how beaten down expectations were before Beijing's sudden 180 degree turn on its zero-COVID policy in December.

But still, the index currently stands at 64.8 and has been higher in only a handful of periods in the past 15 years.

GRAPHIC: China economic surprises index -

Of course, a high surprises index can be read two ways: are incoming numbers exceeding forecasts because they are strong in their own right, or because economists' expectations were too gloomy to begin with?

The running assumption is China's reopening is inflationary for the world. Rising demand from one of the world's largest consumers for commodities, oil, energy and resources will push up prices.

But there is a countervailing impact from the increased supply of all the goods and components that China produces, such as semiconductors and manufactured goods.

Inflation and inflation expectations around the world may be moderating, but policymakers continue to talk tough. India's central bank on Wednesday raised rates as expected, but surprised markets by leaving the door open to further tightening, following Australia's example on Tuesday.

A raft of Fed officials on Wednesday signaled it is far too early to call victory on inflation, and so markets are pricing in U.S. rates staying higher for longer.

Back to China, and data on Friday are expected to show monthly and annual consumer price inflation in January picking up to 0.7% and 2.1%, respectively.

Meanwhile, lending figures in the coming days are expected to show a significant increase in activity in January. Beijing's focus is on boosting growth, so further stimulus measures are likely this year.

Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

- Taiwan inflation (January)

- Japan money supply (January)

- Germany inflation (January, prelim)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao)

Marketmind: Surprise surprise!

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email