By Elena Fabrichnaya
SOCHI, Russia (Reuters) - Consecutive interest rate hikes have seriously damaged Russian banks' prospects, the financial head of Russia's No. 2 bank VTB said on Thursday, anticipating a sharp drop in the sector's profits next year after a bumper 2023.
The central bank jacked up rates to 13% this month, as the weak rouble added to already stubborn inflationary pressures from high consumer lending, labour shortages and a wide budget deficit.
VTB CFO Dmitry Pyanov said high rates had so far had virtually no impact on VTB's net interest income but that would change in the months ahead.
"We have about 15 billion roubles of falling interest income per 1 percentage point increase in the key rate," Pyanov told reporters. "In this situation, you can calculate what kind of falling income we will have."
VTB expects record profits of 420 billion roubles this year, bouncing back from a huge, sanctions-induced net loss in 2022 after Russia despatched troops to Ukraine.
"Nothing will prevent us from ending 2023 with record figures," Pyanov said. "It's just that a different era set in in August-September in terms of the key rate.
"There is a clear understanding that banking sector profits in 2024 will be seriously lower than in 2023."
VTB expects the Bank of Russia to keep tightening monetary policy, raising the key rate to 14% by year end. Analysts from the Expert RA rating agency forecast banking sector profits of more than 3 trillion roubles in 2023.
Russian banks have rallied after an initial hit from last year's sanctions against Moscow, with lenders now jostling for business from the state, particularly a burgeoning defence budget, and the country's big corporate accounts.
VTB's provisions more than doubled in August, compared with July, with around 13 billion roubles allocated to a one-time provision on an unnamed foreign borrower.
Pyanov said the borrower from a "friendly" country had repaid its debt in an "unfriendly" currency with a small discount, without disclosing details. Russia considers countries that imposed sanctions as unfriendly.
"We have to solve problems of specific loans that are difficult to service due to the sanctions regime," said Pyanov. "This is a one-off, atypical operation, and we do not see other such cases on the horizon."