Proactive Investors - The lights are expected to stay on this winter, according to National Grid PLC (LON:NG), in a welcome break from the looming threat of blackouts in recent months.
National Grid said that the UK is in a “different position” to where it was a year ago when sanctions on Russian oil and gas sent prices surging.
Increased generation and greater ability to gauge and manage demand for energy are expected to put the country in an advantageous position this winter compared to last year.
This is despite Saudi Arabia’s restriction on oil exports, curbing one barrel a day through the rest of the year, and the UK government’s unsuccessful offshore wind auction this summer.
Craig Dyke, who heads the National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) national control, said: “Compared to last year it is almost going back to around where it was before last winter.
"So the risks that we talked about last year, the probability of them occurring, are much, much lower."
He cited an anticipated uptick in energy supply this year, and a reduction in stressors such as curtailed gas stores due to Russia’s war on Ukraine, and a lull in French nuclear power.
Electricity supply in a business-as-usual ‘base case’ scenario is expected to be 4.4 gigawatts (GW) or 7.4% as a margin of supply over demand, up from 3.7 GW last year, according to National Grid ESO's Winter Outlook for 2023.
Last year, about 41.5% of the UK’s electricity came from renewables, 14.7% came from nuclear, and 40.8% derived from fossil fuels. While five coal-fired power stations were kept on standby last winter, just one will be left on standby this winter.
National Grid said yesterday that as part of its plans to upgrade electricity infrastructure, it will replace the Thames Cable Tunnel between Kent and Essex to reinforce the local network and deliver more offshore wind power.
That upgrade forms part of its Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment programme, which intends to connect 50 GW of offshore wind projects by 2030 including projects approved by Ofgem, National Grid said in a statement.