Good Morning Everyone!
Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN), one of the world’s largest banks is in trouble. Stock trading at record low, credit default swaps at 2009 highs and CEO says bank is at a “critical moment”. Buckle up another bumpy week ahead!
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/30/22; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE U.S. stocks heading for their worst performance since the 2009 financial crisis
-
Worst start in any year since 2002
- S&P500 YTD -25%
- NASDAQ YTD -32%
- Has closed lower 6 of the past 7 weeks
TSX holding up much better
- YTD -13.1%
Investors are asking: Are rates and the U.S. dollar peaking?
- Investors waiting for the sell side to cut their 2nd half 2022 and 2023 estimates
- New year-to-date lows to start Q4
- Investors positioned defensively: Low cash levels and low hedge fund leverage
- The bond market is calmer to start Q4, which should help equities stabilize
- Seasonality is reason for HOPE
- Mid-term Q4 quarters tend to have good returns historically in this time period
- The S&P 500 is 10% below its 63-day moving average. It’s only crossed that threshold 4 times in the past 10 years.
- Stocks and Bonds have never BOTH been down year-over-year in 3 consecutive quarters – EVER
- Perhaps, earnings season will turn the market around
10yr 3.7%'
US$ 112 up 14% in 2022, FX will squeeze U.S. earnings
C$ 72.8
VIX 31
Crude $84 +5%
- OPEC+ meets this week
- may cut production to balance weaker demand by 1 million bbl/d
- Press Conference is October 5 (Wednesday)
Earnings
- None
CRYPTO UPDATE Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) suffers 4th major outage
- Misconfigured node took network offline Friday
Former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky: confirmed scumbag
- Allegedly withdrew $10 million from company ahead of freezing customer accounts
Digital asset flows (into popular crypto ETPs, mutual funds, and OTC trusts) last week
- Third consecutive week of (low) inflows
- Bitcoin (3-week streak) and Ethereum (2-week streak) led
- Broad outflows in altcoins
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