Benzinga - Bitcoin has been surging for the past weeks and months. The top token by market cap has increased more than 50% in the past month and more than 150% in the last 6 months. Its market cap has surpassed $1.3 trillion, larger than nearly all publicly traded companies. However, despite the recent pump, many believe that Bitcoin has more in the tank.
One of the analysts who sees Bitcoin further appreciating is Guy Turner of Coin Bureau. His YouTube channel has over 2 million subscribers and consistently garners hundreds of thousands of views. In a video from early 2024, he discusses his top 10 picks for the coming year, including Bitcoin.
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"BTC will hit a new all-time time high in 2024…that's simply because BTC has a history of surpassing its previous all-time high roughly one year before its cycle high…In late 2016, BTC surpassed its 2013 cycle high of around $1,000. In late 2017, BTC hit a new cycle high of almost $20,000. In late 2020, BTC surpassed its 2017 high and in late 2021, BTC hit a cycle high of almost $70,000. It appears that 2024 will be analogous to 2016 and 2020," Turner said.
Turner looks at past times Bitcoin has hit all-time highs (ATHs) to make a price prediction for Bitcoin, saying that Bitcoin will break ATHs in 2024, and "$80,000 would be a conservative expectation."
Additionally, his prediction shows that a new ATH is usually reached around a year before a cycle high. This means that Bitcoin could reach new ATHs, retrace slightly and then continue to rise in 2025: "We believe that BTC will hit a high of between $130,000 and $180,000 – this is likewise based on BTC's previous cycles, which have seen diminishing returns."
Turner's prediction was made "regardless of whether a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved or not," but the spot ETFs were approved in early 2024. The ETFs brought in huge amounts of institutional buyers and may have been another price catalyst.
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On top of the ETFs, an upcoming Bitcoin halving could send prices even higher. The halving will further limit the amount of new tokens that are put into circulation each block, effectively decreasing the rate at which the supply increases. While some believe that this is already priced in, it could lead to further gains when it occurs, most likely in April 2024.
Another important factor to consider is exchange liquidity. On Coinbase and Binance, there is only around 5,000 BTC, equating to just over $300 million, between the current price and the $80,000 level. According to the post, that is less than what the ETF sponsors buy in a single day. If more liquidity is not added, there is comparatively less room between current prices at $80,000 than in the past.
So, as Bitcoin appears to be following patterns of old and other signs are pointing towards price increases, it will be interesting to see how the price of Bitcoin moves in the coming months, and if Turner’s prediction plays out.
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