By Jonathan Cable
LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling will recover some of its recent lost ground later this year, a Reuters poll found, but that optimism is threatened by uncertainty around Britain's upcoming referendum on whether to leave the European Union.
The pound is down around 4 percent against the dollar since the United States Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade late last year and is currently trading around $1.45.
With diminishing prospects for a rate rise in Britain, the pound sank to a seven-year low of $1.4079 late last month. But the latest poll of more than 50 foreign exchange strategists taken this week suggested that weakness won't last.
Sterling will fall to $1.43 in a month and then to $1.42 in three but in a year's time it would be back at $1.47, the poll predicted. The latest forecasts are weaker than those taken a month ago.
Around three quarters of strategists who answered an extra question said risks to forecasts were to the downside ahead of a vote on whether Britain stays in the EU or chooses "Brexit".
"Brexit is not in our central case. But if it looks like occurring, that could weigh on sterling," said Chris Hare at Investec.
Prime Minister David Cameron has promised a vote by the end of 2017 and the latest opinion polls have shown voters are almost evenly split.
Cameron said on Tuesday the vote could come within "a few months" if other EU countries back a series of proposed changes to the bloc which were announced earlier in the day.
Other strategists said the economy and monetary policy would be the deciding factor.
The Bank of England is now not expected to raise Bank Rate from its record low 0.5 percent until at least October as inflation holds stubbornly below the Bank's 2 percent target. [BOE/INT]
Sterling markets don't expect that to happen until 2018.
Last month's Reuters poll of economists also said Britain's economy would grow a steady 0.6 percent per quarter through to 2017.
Against the euro the pound is forecast to make steady gains. The European Central Bank is widely expected to loosen policy further when it meets next month as it fights its own battle to bring up desperately low inflation.
In a month, one euro will buy you 75.3 pence, in three months it will be worth 75.0p while in a year you would get just 71.4p, the poll found. It closed at 75.7p on Tuesday.
(Polling by Kailash Bathija and Shrutee Sarkar; Editing by Ross Finley and Catherine Evans) OLGBBUS Reuters UK Online Report Business News 20160203T142326+0000