On Monday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reiterated its Equalweight rating and $210.00 stock price target on Honeywell International (NASDAQ:HON). The firm's stance comes after recent discussions with Honeywell's C-Suite and an investor event that covered a range of topics including the company's turnaround efforts, balance between organic growth and margins, and the impact of a recent activist shareholder letter.
Honeywell has faced challenges in achieving growth, which has led to a devaluation compared to its industrial peers. This underperformance is attributed to the company's limited exposure to major U.S. industrial trends such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and reshoring, as well as a focus on margins at the potential cost of growth in the post-Covid landscape. Morgan Stanley suggests that these issues are not quickly solvable by a potential company separation.
The firm also provided insights into Honeywell's management under CEO and Chairman Vimal Kapur, who has been in the role for less than a year. Kapur is seen as a dedicated leader focused on what is right for the company and shareholders.
Although management is open to various strategies, there is ongoing debate about the best course of action for shareholder value. Morgan Stanley believes that a return to mid-single-digit organic growth could potentially re-rate the stock closer to historical levels, a process that might be faster and less disruptive than a company separation.
Honeywell is currently integrating four acquisitions aimed at megatrends, and divesting lower-growth businesses that lack aftermarket opportunities. A separation of business units, while not ruled out, is seen as complex due to shared digital infrastructure, the company's investment-grade credit rating, and an efficient tax rate.
Management also highlighted the risks of opportunity cost and bandwidth challenges that could arise from a separation, which could affect further portfolio actions and operational processes, such as resolving supply chain constraints in the Aerospace division. Honeywell's stock is currently trading at a sum-of-the-parts discount, a trend observed over the last three quarters.
In other recent news, Honeywell International has been in the spotlight following significant investment activity and proposed structural changes. Activist investor Elliott Management has acquired a stake exceeding $5 billion in Honeywell and is suggesting a split into two separate entities: Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Automation. This proposal has drawn responses from several analyst firms.
Barclays (LON:BARC) maintained its Overweight rating on Honeywell shares, highlighting the company's recent agreement to sell its Personal Protective Equipment business for $1.325 billion. The firm also noted potential dilution of Honeywell's adjusted earnings per share due to this divestiture.
BofA Securities and RBC Capital Markets have responded to Elliott's stake by raising their price targets for Honeywell to $240 and $253 respectively. However, Wolfe Research downgraded Honeywell's stock from Outperform to Peer Perform due to operational challenges. Despite these, Honeywell's third-quarter earnings report showed an 8% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings per share, reaching $2.58.
In terms of organizational changes, Honeywell's CFO Greg Lewis (JO:LEWJ) is transitioning to Senior Vice President of Honeywell Accelerator, with Mike Stepniak stepping in as CFO in February 2025. The company completed four acquisitions in 2024, totaling over $9 billion, and plans to spin off its advanced materials division. These moves underscore Honeywell's strategic focus on future growth.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent InvestingPro data provides additional context to Honeywell's financial position and market performance. The company's market capitalization stands at $148.98 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the Industrial Conglomerates sector. Honeywell's P/E ratio of 26.21 suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for its earnings, which aligns with the company's status as a prominent industry player.
InvestingPro Tips highlight Honeywell's strong dividend history, having raised its dividend for 14 consecutive years and maintained payments for 40 years. This consistent dividend policy may appeal to income-focused investors, especially given the current dividend yield of 1.97%. The company's financial health is further underscored by its liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations and operating with a moderate level of debt.
While Morgan Stanley maintains an Equalweight rating, it's worth noting that Honeywell's stock has shown positive momentum, with a 20.99% total return over the past year. This performance, coupled with 11 analysts revising their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, suggests a degree of optimism about the company's near-term prospects.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips and insights, with 11 more tips available for Honeywell on the platform.
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