I wrote this last time
'...the most interesting has to be last Friday's KR Up! This coming as it did up off the Medium MA support (currently 417 %). I would be very interested to see if we have follow through upwards on Monday and if the rally can get above the combined high and 50% Fib based around 441 5/8.'
Well, the KR Up failed on the third day, the subsequent mid- month rally also failed so it seemed obvious that we first try down to the Medium MA support (currently 422 1/8) and then down to the Long MA support (currently 412 7/8). These supports failed - the Long MA spectacularly - and prices fell until they were halted by the 38.2% Fib of the Aug 2016 - Feb 2017 move (currently 399 /). Not a Fib I would have chosen to do that but it gave the market a KR Up which it seemingly has followed - back up over the Long MA for starters.
Where now? Well, the elephant in the room is whether the Dec 2016-to-date action is a H+S Top. I'm not wholly convinced but I can see the idea behind it. 'X' marks the potential target if it comes about - about 365. However, the market would have to turn significantly lower to attempt this...and soon. It is seemingly held loosely within a short Bearish Channel (currently 400 - 432) but it may not be sufficient if tested. With MAs, we have one up, two down and one sideways...all move me towards a Bearish bullet point with a question mark.
The rally Friday was the second consecutive close over the Long MA and the first over the key recent 50% Fib at 416 7/8. It will need a further consecutive one to confirm that...at least. Caution on this one - we have a lot of good resistance ahead but the bounce up was good as well. Support is currently at 416 7/8. 412 7/8(dynamic), 411 7/8. 405 % and 399 / - 398 /. Resistance is currently at 422 1/8 - 424 428 1/8, 431 / - 432 1/8, 436 /, 439 % and 441 5/8.
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