Soybeans (Second Month Continuous)
Last week I wrote that 'Below we've also the 50% Fib of the 2016— 2017 move nearby at 1025 and unless we turn up quickly and break the Upper Tine (currently 1076) once again then we may well be heading down to for it.'. We certainly tried to have a go at it this past week. On both the start of the week and midway, we tried down but failed as we neared, notably on Wednesday (a failed Key Reversal Down), the recent 61.8% Fib at 1029. This action formed a Double Bottom with a prospective upside Target in the 1073 area. We are currently travelling along the underside resistance of the Jan—Feb Schiff Pitchfork (currently 1060). Failure to reach up to the Target and you could then see a fall to the Lower Tine (currently 1035).
Chicago Soybean Meal (Second Month Continuous)
I really thought we'd continue the move lower last week...mainly because of 'The feature that stands out over all are the two 50% Fibs of the older 2016-2017 move at 357.2 and the recent 2018 move at 357.1. You couldn't put a piece of paper in between them! Their coincidence seems like an attractor... we may see a market move to those levels. Only fresh highs would negate such a thing.'. Well...we didn't try fresh highs but we haven't headed down yet to the 357.2/357.1 'attractor'. Instead, we're held up by the 61.8% Fib of the 2016-2017 move at 372.3 and on for a Weekly Indecisive Doji Cross. Better make up our mind soon as we'll crash into the 2018 Uptrend (currently 363.1) within two weeks!
Chicago Soybean Oil (Second Month Continuous)
I'd hoped for a '...a nice market symmetry if we do go there...The 31.00 area would be the Target for a DT —the low back in Jun 2017.'. DT stands for Double Top which we'd after an earlier Double Bottom. The first part of the week looked as if we could be on and even Wednesday looked good as a Key Reversal Down on the Daily Chart. However, the KR Down failed! We've continued to move higher and we're close to punching through (properly) the Upper Tine of the recent Schiff Pitchfork (currently 32.39). We've had no real move nor close over the Tine or the KR High...but it may be that we need to revisit the Medium & Long MAs (currently 33.29 and 33.42) before trying lower again...perhaps?
Paris Rapeseed (Second Month Continuous)
I'd written previously about how '...the 2005-to-date Uptrend (currently 342.25) held up the prior fall.' and 'This looks very valid as we've neared the Uptrend at 342.00 seemingly backing back up.' and finally 'This brings the 2017-to-date Bearish Halfway Hesitation back on and its Target 327. Let's see how it deals with the Uptrend/341.50 2018 low.'. Well, on Monday we tried down and backed up like it was something hot. Yet so far the backing up has overall been mild...much less than half the original fall and we're running into resistance of the recent Schiff Middle Tine (currently 346.00) and the 2017 Schiff Middle Tine (currently 347.00). We'd need to be well over 350 to be serious otherwise we may try down again.
Winnipeg Canola (Second Month Continuous)
What an obtuse market! I wrote last time that despite earlier Bullishness we now '...oughtn't to recover, at least immediately because at time of writing, we're on for a Weekly Key Reversal Down at the top. We need to close below 516.30...unlikely but maybe.'. Well we did indeed close below 516.30 and we had a KR Down on the Weekly Chart. Then what? We turned right back up Monday as the proximity of the Medium MA (currently 510.40) and the 2018 Uptrend (currently 510.00) rallied prices up... including a Bullish Gap...till we once again approached the major resistance of the May 2016-to-date Downtrend (currently 531.80). These are the ranges we're caught within and whichever is broken ought to decide the next way. We're slowing down nearing the resistance today...caution!
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