GBP/USD
The past month has denoted a number of failures, including some I'd not anticipated. When I wrote last time, it looked that we had a mild pullback but that prices seemed to be stabilising. This proved to be the opposite as early as the first session after writing as prices plunged...so wrong on that! The fall continued during the subsequent week with consecutive closes - just - below the recent 50% Fib at 1.3214. However, the drop was halted by the steadily rising Medium MA (currently 1.3085) which on three separate occasions during the month had bounced the market higher.
Yet each high failed to be exploited and though we've ended the month lower it can also be seen that we've traded sideways between 1.3050 and 1.3300...more or less. This has led to my labelling on the Daily Chart above 'Possible Double Bottom...or...Halfway Hesitation...' on the Daily Chart above as both seemed possible...until very recently. I use the past tense 'seemed' as this past week we've seen some action that likely may lead to a resolution of this dichotomy - we've had two consecutive closes below the Medium MA and also a Key Reversal Down on the Weekly Chart. Though Friday's action has not been exploited it is more likely, at the moment, to be a Bearish Halfway Hesitation.
Hence, I've placed an 'X' at the possible target area if such a move results...about 1.2750. It is too early to say if this move will occur, after all, we've just had a second close below the Medium MA last Friday and it wasn't that convincing despite the Weekly KR Down. On that basis, I've moved to Neutral the bullet point above given that we are below the Medium MA (currently 1.3085) and above the Long MA (currently 1.2857) and despite three MAs rising and only one falling, it would be the most that such a view could extend.
Support is currently at 1.3064, 1.3041, 1.3024, 1.3015, 1.2995, 1.2907, 1.2881, 1.2857 (dynamic), 1.2817, 1.2772 and 1.2750.
Resistance is currently at 1.3085(dynamic), 1.3110 - 1.3121, 1.3214, 1.3233, 1.3248, 1.3319 and 1.3336.
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