The Key Reversal UP on the 4th of Mar set up the main move for Mar in USD/INR, a move that expended a lot of energy seeing prices go higher but which has ended with prices within a day’s range of this same period last month! Ultimately that is the test of the bullet point above and though we had a big range on the upside we still ended back down from the highs.
Now, the bearish Andrews & Schiff Pitchforks I drew last time have had to be expanded as prices have risen, they nevertheless are still seemingly valid so we have support at 61.83 (dynamic), 61.73 (combined), 61.65 and the rapidly ascending Long MA (currently 61.58). The Long MA will be the key event on any test lower, consecutive closes below that and we are talking a change to a bearish bullet point above! Topside, we have resistance at 62.15, a band 62.26 – 62.31 (including the Medium MA) & combined resistance at 62.57.
Ideally, consecutive closes over 62.57 as a key 50% Fib line there ought to move you to a mildly bullish stance at least but we have seen that this past month so that would not be enough, you’d have to have consecutive closes over the 61.8% Fib of the same move at 62.88 to even look at that again! With all the confusion of the nearest three MAs, I’ve decided to keep it neutral above for this month!
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