The start 2018 should bring reassuring news for traditional economists as the strong US economy, with minimal slack will start producing steady inflation.
Markets expect a strong rebound of US December core CPI of 0.3% m/m following a weak reading of 0.12% in the previous month. A strong monthly read will push up annual read to 1.8% from 1.7% in November. Higher food prices should offset decline in energy prices in December (but likely reverse due to adverse weather conditions in January). The sharp fall in retail gasoline prices is likely to be offset by rise in expenditures to heat homes like natural gas, heating oil and electricity prices.
We expect December headline CPI to increased 0.18% m/m and 2.1% y/y. The overall effect should be supportive of the Fed hawk views that three 25bp hikes are appropriate for 2018.
A marginal USD rally should be anticipated as the Fed fund pricing increase probability in March, June and September, Yet taking a broader view we suspect that trend of inflation will underwhelm the majority of FOMC members likely resulting in the removal of the June rate hike. Disappointing wage growth reported in recent payroll report suggests that wage growth remains subdued despite tighter labour market. On a side note, retail job creation fell suggesting that reports of the new online economy replacing old bricks in mortar (which is in rapid decline) might be over estimated. Remaining slack in the low skills market is another reason why PCE is unlikely to accelerate.
Our longer-term view for USD remains bearish against higher yielding EM currencies.