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Soybeans: Trend Up?

Published 06/04/2018, 07:18
Updated 09/07/2023, 11:32

Soybeans

Soybeans

What an interesting month has just passed. We, being at the peak last time, managed to reach the Neckline of the potential Reverse H+S Pattern (currently 1081) only to suitably turn back down and fall away. Not quite to the 2018 50% Fib at 1013 but a reasonable distance before once again starting to move higher with at the time a big Key Reversal Up.

However, the move up was too much and too soon and we saw the next day...this past Monday...the market make a Spike Top and start to look ragged on its rise. This lasted for just a day...and then we had Yesterday! On such news as came out, it was unsurprising that we fell given the preliminary Bearishness already in the market and going below the key 2016 - 2017 50% Fib at 1025, then through the recent 50% Fib at 1013 and even below the Medium MA (currently 1008). It looked like we might see a try for the Long MA (currently 990) but the market most brilliantly turned on the Lower Tine of the Aug 2017 - Jan 2018 move (currently 995.25)...if you ever needed proof that this stuff works...there it is! Now, we turned there but what was most astonishing is the market rallied back up over all the previous support-turned resistance-turned again into support.

It is truly fascinating how the market did this and we ended back up on the day over the 50% Fib at 1025. Today we've gone higher and we're currently over the 50% Fib of the Mar move down at 1038.50. This is truly astonishing. So where now? Well, we have the big Reverse H+S formation I've spoken about in the past...but I think this is too early to go further into that other than note its existence on the Daily Chart above. I think the next month will very much depend if the market maintains itself over the 50% Fib at 1038. If so then we have the opportunity to try once again to the recently established Downtrend (currently 1070).

If we decline and we have consecutive closes below the key 50% Fib at 1025...then we may be testing once again all the previously mentioned supports...only this time it could be with controlled selling rather than panicked attention. The Sideways option would be a gradual decline with lower highs and lows as we approach 1025...again. We may by then have the Medium MA and even perhaps the Long MA in attendance as support. The bullet point...that stays Bullish...but with a question mark.

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