Janet Yellen faced a hostile House of Representatives yesterday, having to defend the monetary policy she has been responsible for for a little over three years.
A regulatory reform is being studied whereby a congressional audit of monetary policy would take place. Mrs. Yellen believes this “second guessing” would result in “poor economic performance”.
There has been widespread criticism of the FOMC by lawmakers who see the policy of keeping interest rates close to zero and buying large tranches of bonds and MBS’s as having led to the slowest recovery since the war.
It is counter-intuitive to suggest that low interest rates slowed the economy, but they are lawmakers and clearly a law unto themselves.
It is hard to imagine Mrs. Yellen getting a second term in office, given the criticism she faced from President Trump during his election campaign. The president is also able to appoint three new members to the FOMC, including a financial supervisor to regulate financial oversight.
Yesterday’s inflation and retail sales numbers were supportive of tighter monetary policy and a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on 14/15 March. Mrs. Yellen continued her policy of “advance guidance” to the markets. On Tuesday, Yellen hinted more rate hikes were on the way as the jobs market has improved and inflation has shown signs of nearing the Fed's two percent goal.
In the U.K, employment data continued the “steady as she goes” nature of monetary policy although lower than expected wages growth is a minor cause for concern.
The unemployment rate remained constant at 4.8% following a fall of 38k in jobless claims.
Guess what! Sterling remained in a narrow range as we near the triggering of Article 50.
A date of March 8th was being mentioned as possible “A” day but the Government’s Brexit Minister commented that plans remain on course which means March 31st
There is a lot of chatter about what will happen to the pound once negotiations begin. It is certain that volatility will increase and the pound will be caught between rumour and fact. Perception is a major driver right now and the Hard Brexit Bad, Soft Brexit Good campaign remains. There was however chatter yesterday that the market has “priced in” a total departure from the single market.
In a possible nod to right wing election candidate Geert Wilders, the Dutch Government is introducing a new bill that will ring fence telecom companies from takeover by foreign companies. It will be interesting to see how the EU Commission reacts to this. It will be seen as a protectionist act, but will likely be couched in terms of national security.
Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday. Although there was little of economic consequence discussed it represents the President’s first foray into the minefield that is Middle Eastern politics. In typical Trump fashion, he promised a deal that will lead to a lasting peace. Some far more respected statesmen have tried and failed, so this will be interesting!