EUR/USD: Trend Up
Last time I outlined three options for the market. These were centred around the brilliant Tines of the March - April Bullish Andrews Pitchfork which has been so effective in giving support and resistance this year as well as the Bullish angle of attack of the market.
- The first was use the Middle Tine (currently 1.1953) as support and move higher.
- The second was ee could turn around the Middle Tine as support a launching board for a try back up.
- The third was to head down through the Lower Tine (currently 1.1729) to new recent low levels.
I'd suggested the 1st was 'doable', the 2nd likely and the 3rd unlikely. The 2nd , for which I'm grateful, turned out to be the case with the market steadying around the Middle Tine before trying higher a week ago. Looking forward, the high last week looks suspicious as it was an Indecisive Doji Cross and could possibly be regarded as a Bearish Shooting Star.
This led to the weakening markets post the high plus last Friday's Bearish Engulfing Pattern and also a possible Bearish Shooting Star Pattern. It looks like we may start the week with another possible attempt lower. To reinforce this I suggest looking at the recent action, we had expansive ranges last week or so whereas we've had narrow ranges the weeks before. The market may just be getting comfortable over 1.1800...but I'm not sure. Nevertheless, the support under 1.1800 centred on the August 2015 high, which I've still left on the Daily Chart above at 1.1711, looks good and I'd look to see a slowing on any heading lower.
I'd like to draw your attention to one item I wrote last time:
I really do not have any resistance on the upside apart from the recent high at 1.1908, the dynamic Upper Tine of the AP. Apart from this there are some minor resistance levels at 1.2108 and 1.2164 and nothing of note will we get to 1.2255.
This is still the case and we've only had one real test towards 1.2108 which petered out at 1.2070. Due to my cautious nature, I'd say that if we were going to go higher then we ought to have done it this week...or maybe next week. Otherwise I'd be concerned for a test of the Lower Tine.
Support is currently 1.1846, 1.1821, 1.1738 - 1.1729, 1.1711 - 1.1706, 1.1687, 1.1661 and 1.1593 - 1.1599.
Resistance is curtly at 1.1909, 1.1953 (dynamic), 1.1979, 1.2070, 1.2108, 1.2164 - 1.2177 (dynamic) and 1.2255.
We are so very far from a potential trend change that as to go neutral we'd need closes under 1.1359 and bearish it'd be below 1.0991. However, a near term trend change could happen with consecutive closes under 1.1593. Nevertheless, the bullet point above stays firmly bullish.
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