A lack of direction is the main takeaway from the first couple of days of trading this week in almost all major money markets. Traders remain cautious at this time and even though the previous rallies have now died down there is a certain lack of commitment from market participants to fuel a move towards the opposite direction.
We have called for a gradual rise of the US Dollar this week and we’ve seen some positive signs on that scenario on Monday but yesterday the currency flows changed again and the US currency almost gave up its already modest gains. There is great uncertainty ahead of the US jobs report coming up on Friday, especially after the release of the Non-Manufacturing ISM report yesterday.
The employment-related components of the report didn’t exactly excite traders leading to doubts over the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday. The result was a mild retreat from the Dollar against the Euro and the Pound but from a fundamental perspective it is important to note that the bias on both European currencies points lower.
From a technical point of view, the Euro gained against the buck yesterday and this morning is trading just shy of the 1.1250 level in close proximity of its 1.1290 highs of last week. However we see limited momentum behind this rise and we don’t believe that the Euro has the potential to overcome these highs, at least not at this point.
With the Services PMI reports from several Euro area countries scheduled for release this morning along with the Retail Sales figures from the Euro-zone we could see some further price action in the Single currency. However we’d like to warn our audience not to commit into any longer-term trades in the Euro at this time since its price action doesn’t align with the fundamental values behind the currency and we would expect a further retreat lower soon.
Similar to the Euro, the Cable also traded higher yesterday making its way to the 1.5200 level even though the Construction PMI report printed lower. Over the next 24 hours the release of the Services PMI report will attract investors’ attention on the UK currency and another lower reading should send the currency lower again. The main target to the downside remains the 1.5000 ahead of the still uncertain UK elections.
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