Coffee: Trend Down

Published 01/05/2017, 10:24
Updated 09/07/2023, 11:32

Coffee

Last time I suggested that I would move the bullet point to fully Bearish once the MAs fell all in line. They have done amd I will but I have a doubt. It's not that we had a Key Reversal Up immediately following a KR Down...nor the subsequent rally outside the Jan - Feb bearish pitchfork. It's not even that it took the combination of all the resistances between 141.86 - 143.71 plus the Medium MA as resistance AND a big KR Down to halt and turn the market lower. The subsequent fall to new 2017 lows justified the effort. It is rather that as we have a bearish market, any movements to force it further by going outside the previously mentioned SP may be counterproductive or at least - a Dead Cat Bounce in a bear market... possibly up to the Upper Tine (currently 137.83) which may be giving false hope to the bulls but may also trigger other actions. That's what I have concerns over. the reason for the KR bounce up on Friday was the proximity of the Lower Tine (currently 125.70) which is good enough for say a bounce up to the Middle Tine (currently 131.77) but for the Bears...anything further throws dangers in the mix. Support is currently at 128.80, 126.72, 125.70(dynamic), 120.87 amd 117.03.

Resistance is currently at 131.05, 131.77 (dynamic), 133.21, 135.22, 135.84, 137.22, 137.83(dynamic), 138.29, 141.86 - 143.71. Consecutive closes over 135.22 may move the market into neutral whilst consecutive closes over the Long MA (currently 146.23) would cast a Bullish spell.

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