EUR/GBP: Last month I suggested '...we might have a likely try higher than lower or even sideways at the moment. However, I do not think any move up has the ammunition to go much beyond the 0.8710 - 0.8750 area at this moment. Hence the mildly bullish bullet point above.' and '...the Long MA is far stronger than the Medium MA.'.
Both these points seem to have been endorsed...more or less...during this past month. The market hasn't come near 0.8710 - 0.8750 area and the Medium MA has been an excellent resistance bar one particular day. The Long MA (currently 0.8509) on the other hand has been penetrated on the downside but with some finessing you could say that with the Bullish Matching Pattern over the 23rd - 24th of Feb and despite the market trading more than once below, the closes could be regarded as non-consecutive.
This Bullish Matching led at the start of last week to the rally which we've seen rise up through all MAs and strong close last Friday over the Nov 2016 - Jan 2017 50% Fib at 0.8577 as well as the most recent 50% Fib at 0.8625. These bullish factors have led me to maintaining the mildly bullish bullet point above. We're above a lot of resistance that is now support plus we're above all MAs and recent 50% Fibs. If the rally is to stabilise then further consecutive closes over the Feb high at 0.8648 are needed.
Now whilst I can see the Bullish tendency, hence the mildly Bullish bullet point above, it would be a lot to ask to try by next time the next real resistance, the 50% Fib of the Oct 2016 - Dec 2016 move at 0.8834 though an attempt at the Oct-to-date Downtrend (currently 0.8731) could be reasonable. As for the downside, just use the previously mentioned levels including the dynamic MAs PLUS the 0.8398 low now made in Feb as support and halting levels should the market decide to head that way.
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