Last time I was full bearish on this market and that was a mistake. I’d hoped for continued close below the Medium MA (currently 349 ½) but we only managed that one on the Thursday before my review. Since then, we rejected the idea of going lower – no two consecutive closes below the Medium MA and we’ve tried higher. The first attempt over the Long MA (currently 356 ½) was an island top and failed…but the idea did not and prices tested up again in Jan and finally broke free on the upside just after mid-Jan and rallied up to the key 50% Fib of the Jul 2015 – Aug 2016 move at 369 7/8 before pulling back down to test the Long MA again and seemingly try higher.
As can be seen on the daily chart above, we are in a mildly bullish channel with support seemingly at 339 and resistance at 372 ½. Now I’m the first to say that this bullish channel is far from ideal. Rather, I’m trying to capture the generalised angle of attack on the upside. What I am sure about is that neither going up nor going down have seemingly too much incentive for this market and it is looks like it is using the line of least resistance to gradually move higher.
We have multiple MAs, mostly bullish acting as support/resistance…support at the moment… at 363 3/8, 356 ½, 354 1/8 and 349 ½. Additionally there is support at 353 5/8, 352, 347 ¼, 345 ½ and 344 ¼. Resistance is still obviously centred on the 369 7/8 level on a consecutive closing basis and also to a lesser extent at 371, 374 ½, 382 7/8 and 386 1/8. There is an opportunity in the next few weeks for the MA’s to form a bullish golden cross, possibly even a bullish bow tie formation. Keep an eye out for that at this time. With this in mind plus the other factors above, I’m moving the bullet point into mildly bullish for the moment.
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