At major, multi-year cycle lows, you need different tools to spot the turn. Gold's technicals, much like technical indicators for other assets, are always going to be signaling lower prices at major bottoms. So chartists are always on the wrong side of the boat at these bottoms. Fundamentals are always terrible at multi-year trend changes. So the fundamentalists always get this wrong too.To get this right, you need cycles and sentiment.
It's been my expectation for a couple of years now that gold could test the previous C-wave top before the bear market ended. The CRB Index is in the timing band for the 3-Year cycle low, and it just tested the 2001 low. If the CRB has bottomed, than so has gold. Plus, judging by the level of pessimism displayed on the Gold Sentiment chart, below, we're seeing just the sort of horrid perception that generally precedes multi-year cycle lows.
