Today’s schedule of Eurozone economic data publications is heavy. The big question is whether this will prompt large moves in the single currency or not. According to expectations, June employment rate should continue beating historical records while inflation and Q2 GDP q/q data are estimated to remain flat. However Annualized Q2 GDP is expected to have declined (estimates: 2.20%; prior: 2.50%).
As European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and US President Donald Trump meeting in Washington ended on a positive note last Wednesday, we expect the EUR/USD to remain stable. However, a larger-than-expected decline in GDP growth (though already priced in following ECB meeting last Thursday) or inflation could put additional pressure on the EUR, while the opposite also applies.
Trading sideways since 21. May 2018, EUR/USD is trading within a flat trend channel between 1.18 (07/06/2018 high) and 1.1540 (29/05/2018 low). The pair is expected to head along 1.1745 in the short-term.
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By Vincent Mivelaz