AUD/USD: Trend?
What can we expect? If it does follow the Bearish scenario then the first test will be the nearby 50% Fib support at 0.7817 followed by the overall move's 50% Fib at 0.7696. If we close below the later then we have returned to a medium to longer term Neutral state from an immediate short term Bearish state.
Well, we certainly managed the first part last month with a fall to the 50% Fib at 0.7817. However, that is where we deviated and prices did not even manage a single close below the level preferring to try back up...though somewhat halfhearted.
Since mid-month we've gone sideways to a little higher. I had on the turn drawn some early Bullish Pitchforks. However, the Andrews one has been negated and the Schiff is suspect as we've had one move below the Lower Tine. This has also stymied an idea developed during the month, the remnants you can see above in the circles, of potentially volatile and/or market direction enforcing or changing days due to the Crossover of Tines.
I've left them on just in case and they are the 4th and 13th. Important days (potentially)
So where now? The recovery has been as previously stated...halfhearted! The resistance is still there - between 0.8030 - 0.8074. The key support is still there - the 50% Fib at 0.7817 and we are above all MAs though down month-on-month. I am and feel obliged to move the bullet point above into Neutral with potential for a move further should the topside be overcome. I will likely take off the SP next time...unless it proves useful of course (and the circles likewise).
Support is currently at 0.7943, 0.7921 (dynamic), 0.7876, 0.7863, 0.7817 and 0.7804.
Resistance is currently at 0.7995, 0.8030, 0.8066 - 0.8074, 0.8111 (dynamic), 0.8162, 0.8233 and 0.8295.
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