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NFP Friday with everyone on tenterhooks

ByFTSEDayTrader Limited
AuthorNick Hilsden
Published 06/09/2024, 12:40

Today is NFP news at 1330 and the markets have been on tenterhooks this week ahead of that, as it will give more clue on the imminent rate cuts or not. The forecast is 164k, up from 114k previously, while unemployment is forecast to have dropped 0.1% to 4.2%. They will come after a private report from ADP on Thursday showed the US added the fewest jobs since 2021. The payrolls data will help determine whether the Fed can lower borrowing costs by a quarter-point this month — or deliver a larger, half-point reduction.. Ahead of the report, traders are fully pricing a smaller cut but continue to see some chance of a bigger move.

Initially today we may well see another test of the 8200 area and with S1 aligning with the previous low at 8204 we may well then see a bounce here. The bulls will be keen to defend the 8200 level, along with daily support at 8190 and the key fib at 8186. 

A break of 8186 and the bears may well then be looking to drive it down to the 8133 S3 area, along with the next daily support level at 8120. However, we may well see a bit more optimism today, and a rise toward the 8280 resistance area play out instead. 

That would double top with yesterdays high as well, and we also have the R1, 200ema and just below the key fib all in this area. As such, we could see a rise to this ahead of the news (buy the rumour, sell the news) and then a pull back from here. 

If the bulls do go for it today then a test of the 8300 and possibly even 8316 R2 may well play out. 

It all hinges on NFP though! So, keep an eye on 8200 for support, 8285 and 8316 for resistance. 

Good luck today and have a great weekend. 

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