Personal opinion today:
Before the weekend, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers finally reached a constructive agreement and decided to increase crude oil production appropriately from July. As the international crude oil market increased by nearly 1 million barrels a day in the second half of the year, the increase in production was below the market target and did not change the tightening trend of crude oil supply. As a result, prices were supported. Before the close of trading on Friday, the US crude oil price rose to near 69 USD.
At 16:00 this afternoon, Germany announce the business climate index, and the market is expected to decline. At 22:00 in the evening, the United States announce new home sales, and the market is expected to grow. Note that the US Dollar has the opportunity to perform better because of the data, which is bullish USD.
Today's proposal:
1.1680/1.1700 resistance
1.1638/1.1611 support
The EU government will impose a 20% counter-tariff on U.S. imports, and the news stimulated the euro to rise. However, the U.S. side will fight back, I believe it needs to be observed and be careful about the risks. At 16:00 in the afternoon, Germany announced the business climate index, and the market is expected to decline. If the result is lower than expected, it will be negative for the euro.
GBPUSD
1.3280/1.3300 resistance
1.3205/1.3195 support
Last week, the Bank of England broke the interest rate, and one of the central bank’s voting members changed their attitudes in favour of raising interest rates, stimulating expectations of an increase in interest rates in the UK Bank in August. Together with the euro's rebound against the dollar, it supports the pound. However, it must be noted that the above factors lack actual reasons for support. There are also risks and worries ahead of the EU summit and the UK’s announcement of the Brexit White Paper this week. The exchange rate of the GBP/USD may be adjusted downwards, taking note of the risks.
0.9865/0.9840 support
0.9935/0.9955 resistance
The Swiss Central Bank’s monetary policy last week, and the euro strengthened, bullish Swiss francs. However, after the good news, today's market expects the US economic data to perform better, bearish Swiss francs, and USD/CHF has the opportunity to adjust the rebound.
109.70/109.85 resistance
109.20/108.95 support
As the Nikkei index fell this morning, the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, USD/JPY fell from the 110.76 and 110.20 levels respectively, and the support level has also moved downwards. Currently note 109.20 and 108.95 support. If the stock market falls, there will be an opportunity to test lower support.
0.7440/07452 resistance
0.7414/0.7405 support
The technical rebound in copper prices, coupled with the decline in the US dollar, supported the rise in the Australian dollar. Before viewing the results of the U.S. economic data tonight, the Australian dollar has the opportunity to adjust the next test support level. At 7:30 am tomorrow, Australia announces its consumer confidence index. Whether the result can be improved, and the Australian dollar will be better.
0.6912/0.6940 resistance
0.6885/0.6865 Support
Attention to the New Zealand dollar following the development of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar showed an upward trend. If the U.S. economic data show a better than expected performance tonight, the New Zealand dollar may adjust its support for the next support. And the market is concerned about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate and monetary policy orientation on Thursday.
1.3335/1.3355 resistance
1.3270/1.3250 support
The oil price rebounded and supported the Canadian dollar. Unfortunately, last week's important Canadian economic data was weak, and the Canadian dollar’s rise was limited. If the US economic data show better performance this evening, the Canadian dollar can still find resistance. Of course, the Canadian dollar may still refer to the development of oil prices.
0.8800/0.8825 resistance
0.8775/0.8755 support
This week's EU summit and the United Kingdom announce the Brexit report on the eve of the sterling risks and worries exist, the euro has a chance to rise against the pound. If so, we could break the resistance, the resistance could be above 0.8825.
EURCHF
1.1535/1.1550 resistance
1.1495/1.1480 support
The SNB policy remains unchanged, but its content tends to make the euro negative. The EUR/CHF trend is trending downwards. 1.1480 is an important short-term support.
XAUUSD
1268/1266 support
1272/1275 resistance
Last week, the US economic data was weak and gold rose. Short-term economic risks continue to support gold. If the U.S. economic data show a better performance in the short-term tonight, gold has the opportunity to reverse the decline from resistance.
69.15/69.45 resistance
67.65/67.25 support
The OPEC oil group meeting has passed. The oil price lacks other news and has the opportunity to adjust.
6232 / 6434 resistance
6032/ 5820 support
Cryptocurrencies security alarms the blockchain confidence. A couple of Japanese blockchain accounts had been hacked by someone, and as a result the bitcoin fell a lot last Weekend. Now if 6032 supports remains, rebounding maybe 6232 and 6434. If fail to rebound and fall, it maybe reach 5820 which is fist support.
Disclaimer: The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must included risk management! Wish Happy trading!
By ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam