Benzinga - Despite recent market fluctuations, there’s still a chance to make significant profits in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) this year, according to a new report by institutional crypto research firm 10x Research.
What Happened: However, the key lies in strategic planning and precise timing, the latest report states.
“We have been very strategic with our views. We set ambitious targets based on our cycle and macro analysis,” report author Markus Thielen stated.
He noted that their accurate predictions for Bitcoin’s price at halving events and identification of consolidation periods in August 2023, January 2024, and April 2024 have been pivotal in their strategy.
Based on 10x Research's analysis, one significant rally remains for Bitcoin in 2024.
However, to benefit from it, traders need to time their actions perfectly.
“The last few weeks have shown that buy-and-hold (hodl) is no longer working in this market. Traders need to set realistic expectations and have a plan,” Thielen emphasized.
The report highlights the importance of identifying potential turning points when Bitcoin shifts from a bull market to a period of consolidation.
Thielen pointed out that their quantitative tools have been reliable, providing timely alerts, such as in September 2023 when Bitcoin started breaking out.
The Republican National Convention in mid-July could also be a significant market mover.
“The market could shift its focus away from inflation worries to the upside risk that a newly elected Trump would unfold with his tax cuts,” Thielen said.
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He added that SEC Chairs typically resign shortly after a new president is elected, potentially creating further market shifts.
Thielen observed that while the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, insists on data dependence, it has been working to manage the economic growth narrative into the election, which could support risk assets like Bitcoin.
“Powell continues to shower the media with dovish comments to prevent a hawkish narrative from unfolding,” he said.
The report also notes that Bitcoin tends to rally significantly during U.S. presidential election years. Historically, Bitcoin has surged by an average of 192% in such years, supporting a bullish outlook for the remainder of 2024.
However, the report cautions that the anticipated distribution of 142,000 BTC by Mt. Gox in October could introduce significant selling pressure, potentially capping Bitcoin prices near $70,000 later in the year.
Additionally, FTX creditors are expected to receive $11 billion in fiat by November/December, but it is unlikely that this cash will immediately flow back into crypto.
In a scenario where Bitcoin dips to $52,000-$55,000 by July/August, Thielen envisions a subsequent rally to $70,000 if the Republicans appear likely to win the U.S. election.
This could provide a potential 35% rally from summer onwards. “A summer dip could be the gift crypto traders have been waiting for,” Thielen concluded.
What’s Next: The insights from this report will be further explored at Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where industry leaders will discuss the evolving landscape of digital finance and the strategic opportunities in Bitcoin and other digital assets.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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