Bonds Analysis & Opinion

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyThe tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide the...

By Padhraic GarveyThe US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...

By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...

Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting. As noted earlier: “On Wednesday,...

By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...

United States 10-Year yields are closing in on 5%. What's the Big Deal? What does it mean for stocks and gold?

Treasury yield levels are overwhelmingly a function of inflation. However, in the short run, a plethora of influences can explain deviations between yields and inflation. These factors, which we call...

Two weeks ago I pointed out one of the effects of higher interest rates is that leveraged return strategies get swiftly worse as rates rise. Today, I want to talk about another result of higher...

Rising interest rates have created a decline in treasury bonds not seen in modern times.Well, they say crisis equals opportunity.This may be the case today as we look at a long-term...

Psychology in markets is always fascinating. In February 2009, I wrote “8 Reasons For A Bull Market.” While in hindsight, it is easy to see that was the right call, overall, psychology was...

The ongoing bear market in Treasury bonds is among the worst on record, but several sectors of the fixed-income market remain ports in a storm, based on year-to-date results through Thursday (Oct. 5)...

While bond yields have risen sharply lately, fund flows into bonds tell two very different stories. We have previously written much on the recent rise in bond yields related to economic growth, event...

The bond market rout continues to deteriorate and cause growing pains for banks.  Losses in long-maturity bonds are nearing historical levels after coming under severe pressure due to...

There are several indicators to watch when assessing risk across the financial markets, and today we discuss one of the more important ones. Junk bonds. When junk bonds are performing well and in...