By Brijesh Patel
(Reuters) - The platinum market faces its largest supply shortfall in 10 years in 2024 as shipments from Russia return to normal from last year's highs and industrial demand stays firm, Johnson Matthey (LON:JMAT) said in a report on Thursday.
The autocatalyst maker added that it expected all platinum group metals (PGM) - platinum, palladium, and rhodium - to remain in deficit in 2024.
The three metals are used in autocatalysts that reduce emissions from vehicle engines, with platinum also used in other industry and for jewellery and investment.
Johnson Matthey (JM) said it expected the platinum market's deficit to increase to 598,000 ounces this year from a shortfall of 518,000 ounces in 2023.
It forecast platinum demand would stabilise at around 7.61 million ounces, with small decreases in automotive and jewellery balanced by an uptick in investment.
Auto sector consumption is expected to slip 1.3% in 2024, while primary supply is projected to fall 2% as Russian shipments return to more normal levels following heavy selling of mined stocks in 2023, JM said.
For palladium, JM said use by automakers would fall about 7%, reducing overall demand to 9.73 million ounces and cutting the market deficit to 358,000 ounces from 1.02 million ounces last year.
For rhodium, auto consumption is also expected to fall - by about 6% - dragging total demand down 4% to 1.06 million ounces. The rhodium market is likely to be undersupplied by 65,000 ounces, down from 125,000 ounces in 2023, JM said.
"Automotive and industrial users bought more metal than they needed during 2020-2022 to mitigate price and supply risks. Since then, consumers have been using up excess PGM inventory, and some have even sold metal back to the market," Rupen Raithatha, market research director at Johnson Matthey, said.
At around $950 an ounce, palladium is trading lower than platinum at $960, pressured by growing demand concerns. [GOL/]
Rhodium is trading around $4,700 an ounce, down about 84% from all-time highs reached in March 2021.
PLATINUM (THOUSANDS OF OUNCES)
2023 2024 % change
SUPPLY
Primary supply (mined) 5,791 5,681 -2%
Secondary supply (recycled) 1,300 1,335 3%
TOTAL SUPPLY 7,091 7,016 -1%
DEMAND
Automotive 3,342 3,299 -1%
Chemical 647 643 -1%
Dental & biomedical 264 273 3%
Electrical & electronics 195 221 13%
Glass 776 721 -7%
Investment 46 120 160%
Jewellery 1,361 1,343 -1%
Petroleum 174 180 3%
Pollution control 275 279 1%
Other 529 535 1%
TOTAL DEMAND 7,609 7,614 0%
Movement in stocks -518 -598
PALLADIUM (THOUSANDS OF OUNCES)
2023 2024 % change
SUPPLY
Primary supply (mined) 6,547 6,454 -1%
Secondary supply (recycled) 2,807 2,919 4%
TOTAL SUPPLY 9,354 9,373 0%
DEMAND
Automotive 8,745 8,145 -7%
Chemical 543 535 -2%
Dental & biomedical 193 185 -4%
Electrical & electronics 511 524 3%
Investment 61 29 -52%
Jewellery 86 85 -1%
Pollution control 135 140 4%
Other 97 88 -9%
TOTAL DEMAND 10,371 9,731 -7%
Movement in stocks -1,017 -358
RHODIUM (THOUSANDS OF OUNCES)
2023 2024 % change
SUPPLY
Primary supply (mined) 701 704 0%
Secondary supply (recycled) 285 295 4%
TOTAL SUPPLY 986 999 1%
DEMAND
Automotive 989 931 -6%
Chemical 81 92 14%
Electrical & electronics 6 6 0%
Glass 18 18 0%
Other 17 17 0%
TOTAL DEMAND 1,111 1,064 4%
Movement in stocks -125 -65
Source: Johnson Matthey