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Forex - Weekly outlook: July 18 - 22

Published 17/07/2016, 11:57
Updated 17/07/2016, 12:28
© Reuters.  Turkish lira plunges, yen gains ground on attempted coup by some Turkish military

Investing.com - The dollar rallied against the Turkish lira late Friday, while the safe haven yen turned higher, following an attempted coup by a faction inside the Turkish military.

The dollar jumped 4.73% against the Turkish lira to trade at 3.0137 after Turkey’s prime minister said there was a coup attempt under way.

Segments of the military took over key bridges in Istanbul and attacked parliament buildings in Ankara.

Investors also sought refuge in the traditional safe haven yen, which is typically bought up by investors in times of market turmoil.

USD/JPY was down 0.47% at 104.88 late Friday, reversing earlier gains to three-week highs of 106.31.

The dollar had gained ground against the Japanese currency earlier in the day as upbeat economic reports out of the U.S. and China bolstered risk appetite.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in June, the third straight monthly increase and easily outstripping gains of 0.1% forecast by economists.

Chinese data on industrial production and retail sales also beat expectations, indicating that the world’s second largest economy still has momentum.

The dollar still ended the week with gains of 4.16% against the yen as mounting expectations for additional monetary easing by Tokyo continued to pressure the currency lower.

The pound fell sharply against the dollar, with GBP/USD down 1.2% at 1.3181 late Friday after Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, said the bank is poised to ease monetary policy in August to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote.

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But sterling still ended the week with gains of 1.85% after the BoE kept interest rates on hold at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Thursday, dashing expectations for a rate cut.

The euro was lower against the dollar and the yen late Friday, with EUR/USD down 0.83% at 1.1029 and EUR/JPY dropping 1.22% to 115.74.

In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting to see if policymakers will step up easing measures to offset the fallout from the Brexit vote.

The U.K. is to release what will be closely watched reports on employment, inflation and manufacturing activity and the U.S. is to produce a pair of reports on the health of the housing sector.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 18

Markets in Japan will be closed for a national holiday.

New Zealand is to release data on consumer price inflation.

Tuesday, July 19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.

The U.K. is to publish data on consumer price inflation.

In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

The U.S. is to release reports on building permits and housing starts.

Wednesday, July 20

The U.K. is to publish the monthly employment report.

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Thursday, July 21

The U.K. is to produce figures on retail sales and public sector borrowing.

The ECB is to announce its monetary policy decision. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release data on jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Canada is to report on wholesale sales.

Friday, July 22

The euro zone is to release data on private sector business activity.

The U.K. is to release survey data on activity in the manufacturing sector.

Canada is to round up the week with data on retail sales and consumer inflation.

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