Some of you may recall that last year we saw a major sell-off on the pound pretty much every Friday afternoon during the EU referendum campaigns. Over the last couple of weeks, we have begun to see this trend again. The pound as a whole actually didn't have a bad week, but on Friday afternoon around 4 pm GMT we began to see the currency slide against all majors, and as there was no economic data or political announcements to explain the move, I think it is safe to assume that investors sold off the pound as they are not confident in leaving positions over the weekend.
The gains we have seen, particularly in the GBP/EUR exchange rates as of recent, unfortunately have had absolutely nothing to do with the pound (contrary to many people's belief). The euro has weakened slightly over the last week due to Marine Le Pen gaining traction in the French elections. It is expected that she will win round one of the elections, but then lose in the second round, so though we will see movement in the euro, this is all priced in. The major movement we would see in the euro is if Le Pen were to win round two of the election, as she wants France out of the single currency it would add to the many problems Europe have at the moment.
Staying with politics (as it is a quiet week for UK economic data), this week the House of Lords should come to a conclusion about Theresa May's Parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50. There has been much scrutiny of the PM's plans about the rights of EU Nationals currently living in the UK and both Houses wanting a vote on the final deal after all negotiations. The market wants the bill to go through smoothly so negotiations can begin, I think the market is looking forward to some certainty in regards to the UK actually leaving the EU, but the next issue will be the length of negotiations, and of course the actual outcome.
As mentioned above, it will be a quiet week for UK economic data, but as we know it is news from both sides of a currency pair that move the markets so there are important figures coming out of the U.S and Europe such as GDP figures (U.S), Consumer Confidence (U.S), Unemployment (GER), CPI (GER), CPI (EUR) and finally an interest rate decision and GDP figures out of Canada.