Lurking at 2-year plus lows, the last thing cable needs right now is an assessment of the UK economy. Well, sorry sterling, that’s exactly what you are getting this week!
UK
The week actually starts with something a bit more FTSE-focused: a data dump from China. Beijing reveals the latest GDP, fixed asset investment and industrial production readings in the early hours of Monday morning, with those latter 2 numbers under special scrutiny given their shock slumps last month.
It’s with the release of Tuesday’s UK jobs report that sterling will really want to start paying attention. As ever the average earnings index is the figure to watch, last month’s 3.1% the number to beat. The currency will then hope that inflation has crept further above 2.0% on Wednesday, while a positive retail sales reading on Thursday, however meek, may be enough on Thursday.
Sterling will also remain sensitive to Brexit-related comments from the two Tory leadership contenders ahead of the end of the race on July 23rd; though anything Boris Johnson says likely holds more sway over the currency than Jeremy Hunt.
In terms of the corporate calendar, recruiter Hays (LON:HAYS) updates on Tuesday, followed by Galliford Try (LON:GFRD) and Talk Talk (LON:TALK) on Wednesday. Thursday is then the biggie, with Sports Direct (LON:SPD), Moneysupermarket.com (LON:MONY), easyJet (LON:EZJ), SSE (LON:SSE) and Thomas Cook (LON:TCG) all reporting.
US
While investors wait for more details of the recently renewed trade talks between Washington and Beijing to leak out, the US markets have a fairly boring economic calendar with which to grapple.
Things start with the Empire State manufacturing index, a figure that will likely have less impact on trading than the Chinese data earlier in the day. Tuesday then brings the retail sales readings, Wednesday the building permits number, Thursday the Philly Fed manufacturing index and Friday the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment estimates.
Eurozone
The Eurozone has less to pour over this week, though the ZEW economic sentiment readings on Tuesday could give the DAX et al. something to ponder. Beyond that there’s the region-wide inflation figures on Wednesday, and the current account number on Friday.
Stock of the week: easyJet PLC – Q3 Results on Thursday 18th July
With increased talk of a hard Brexit, easyJet hasn’t had a great 2019, falling from an opening price of £11.21 to a low of £8.42 by the start of June. Though it got a pop at the time, the company’s half year results in May didn’t do much to help. Revenue per available seat fell 6.3% to £50.71, contributing to easyJet’s pre-tax loss of £275 million, a decline that was also impacted by the Gatwick drone drama and higher fuel costs.
Ideally some kind of improvement in its revenue per available seat situation is needed in Q3, though easyJet has already warned that it could fall again across the summer, something that may lead to bottom line-eroding lower fares.
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