Alcoa Corp

Stock Price

31.57 EUR

Fair Value

35.16 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple	0.8x - 0.9x	0.9x
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple	0.8x - 0.9x	0.8x
Fair Value	€33.27 - €37.05	€35.16
Upside	6.8% - 18.9%	12.8%

Multiples Valuation: EV / Revenue

Stock Price

31.57 EUR

Fair Value

35.16 EUR

Upside

12.8%

LTM Revenue Multiple

Proj Revenue Multiple

Fair Value

Benchmark Editor


Select LTM Revenue Multiple

	Benchmark Companies
	RDUS	CMC	FCX	NEM	STLD	ALCA
	NasdaqGS:RDUS	NYSE:CMC	NYSE:FCX	NYSE:NEM	NasdaqGS:STLD	WBAG:ALCA
Historical Revenue Growth
5Y CAGR	5.1%	6.3%	12.1%	13.9%	10.9%	2.7%
3Y CAGR	-0.2%	5.6%	3.7%	15.2%	-1.6%	-0.7%
Latest Twelve Months	-7.9%	-7.9%	11.4%	58.2%	-6.7%	12.7%

Historical EBIT Profit Margin
5 Year Average Margin	2.6%	10.8%	25.5%	18.3%	16.7%	7.3%
Prior Fiscal Year	0.0%	13.3%	27.3%	6.0%	16.8%	-0.7%
Latest Fiscal Year	-3.1%	8.8%	27.3%	31.6%	11.1%	7.8%
Latest Twelve Months	-3.0%	6.6%	27.3%	31.6%	11.1%	7.8%

Current Trading Multiples
EV / LTM Revenue	0.51x	0.77x	3.02x	2.87x	1.23x	0.80x
EV / LTM EBIT	-16.7x	11.7x	11.1x	9.1x	11.1x	10.3x
Price / LTM Sales	0.30x	0.71x	2.35x	2.83x	1.08x	0.74x


	Low	Mid	High

Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue	0.51x	1.23x	3.02x
Historical EV / LTM Revenue	0.63x	0.71x	1.07x

Selected EV / LTM Revenue	0.85x	0.89x	0.94x
(x) LTM Revenue	11,895	11,895	11,895
(=) Implied Enterprise Value	10,063	10,593	11,122
(-) Non-shareholder Claims *	(738)	(738)	(738)
(=) Equity Value	9,325	9,855	10,384
(/) Shares Outstanding	258.9	258.9	258.9
Implied Value Range	36.02	38.07	40.11
FX Rate: USD/EUR	1.1	1.1	1.1		Market Price
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur)	33.34	35.23	37.12		31.17
Upside / (Downside)	7.0%	13.0%	19.1%

Supporting Calculations

Equity Waterfall

Financials

Historical Multiples


Equity Waterfall

	Benchmark Companies
(in millions)	RDUS	CMC	FCX	NEM	STLD	ALCA

Enterprise Value	1,378	5,713	74,398	54,516	21,007	9,456
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments	15	758	3,923	3,640	737	1,138
(+) Investments & Other	10	0	456	4,471	0	980
(-) Debt	(582)	(1,195)	(9,738)	(9,059)	(3,345)	(2,856)
(-) Other Liabilities	(2)	(0)	(11,197)	(181)	(11)	0
(-) Preferred Stock	0	0	0	0	0	0
(-) Other	0	0	0	0	0	0
Value of Common Equity	818	5,277	57,842	53,387	18,388	8,718
(/) Shares Outstanding	28.2	113.3	1,437.1	1,127.3	149.9	258.9
Implied Stock Price	29.05	46.59	40.25	47.36	122.67	33.67
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.08
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur)	29.05	46.59	40.25	47.36	122.67	31.17

Trading Currency	USD	USD	USD	USD	USD	EUR
FX Rate to Reporting Currency	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.08

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