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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.4x - 2.6x | 2.5x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.4x - 2.6x | 2.5x |
| Fair Value | Rp813.68 - Rp951.39 | Rp882.53 |
| Upside | -9.6% - 5.7% | -1.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk | FASW | IDX:FASW |
| Vicostone Joint Stock Company | VCS | HNX:VCS |
| PT Solusi Bangun Indonesia Tbk | SMCB | IDX:SMCB |
| Ha Tien 1 Cement Joint Stock Company | HT1 | HOSE:HT1 |
| PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | INTP | IDX:INTP |
| PT Cemindo Gemilang Tbk | CMNT | IDX:CMNT |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| FASW | VCS | SMCB | HT1 | INTP | CMNT | |||
| IDX:FASW | HNX:VCS | IDX:SMCB | HOSE:HT1 | IDX:INTP | IDX:CMNT | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.4% | -4.9% | 3.6% | -4.9% | 3.1% | 8.4% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -13.6% | -15.1% | 7.0% | -0.9% | 7.9% | 10.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -0.3% | -0.7% | 0.1% | -2.3% | 3.3% | -4.1% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.1% | 26.8% | 13.0% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | -5.5% | 23.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 12.4% | 11.7% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | -11.1% | 21.3% | 11.9% | 2.5% | 12.6% | 10.4% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.1% | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 12.6% | 6.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.71x | 1.84x | 0.73x | 0.77x | 0.81x | 2.59x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | -24.4x | 8.6x | 6.9x | 30.1x | 6.5x | 43.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.75x | 2.14x | 0.58x | 0.67x | 0.94x | 1.67x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.73x | 0.81x | 2.71x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 2.80x | 2.92x | 3.48x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.40x | 2.52x | 2.65x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 9,245,742 | 9,245,742 | 9,245,742 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 22,149,705 | 23,315,478 | 24,481,252 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8,470,032) | (8,470,032) | (8,470,032) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 13,679,673 | 14,845,446 | 16,011,220 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 17,125.5 | 17,125.5 | 17,125.5 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 798.79 | 866.86 | 934.93 | |||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 798.79 | 866.86 | 934.93 | 900.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -11.2% | -3.7% | 3.9% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | FASW | VCS | SMCB | HT1 | INTP | CMNT | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,899,014 | 7,958,461 | 8,902,932 | 5,236,371 | 15,101,539 | 23,882,986 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 71,962 | 2,254,697 | 271,915 | 865,530 | 4,496,547 | 434,934 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 9,612 | 36,484 | 260,522 | 67,209 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,466,482) | (965,158) | (2,194,438) | (1,511,390) | (2,438,744) | (8,632,740) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (9,757) | 0 | (339,435) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 13,504,494 | 9,248,000 | 6,990,021 | 4,617,238 | 17,419,864 | 15,412,954 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,477.9 | 160.0 | 9,019.4 | 381.6 | 3,350.0 | 17,125.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5,450.00 | 57,800.00 | 775.00 | 12,100.00 | 5,200.00 | 900.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5,450.00 | 57,800.00 | 775.00 | 12,100.00 | 5,200.00 | 900.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | VND | IDR | VND | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |