Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

Turkey's Erdogan signals economic U-turn in picking orthodox Simsek

Published 03/06/2023, 14:08
Updated 04/06/2023, 00:22
© Reuters. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets members of the parliament and guests as he arrives to take his oath after his election win in Ankara, Turkey, June 3, 2023. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

By Huseyin Hayatsever and Ezgi Erkoyun

ANKARA (Reuters) -President Tayyip Erdogan signalled on Saturday his newly-elected government would return to more orthodox economic policies when he named Mehmet Simsek to his cabinet to tackle Turkey's cost-of-living crisis and other strains.

Simsek's appointment as treasury and finance minister could set the stage for interest rate hikes in coming months, analysts said - a marked turnaround from Erdogan's longstanding policy of slashing rates despite soaring inflation.

After winning a runoff election last weekend, Erdogan, 69, who has ruled for more than two decades, began his new five-year term by calling on Turks to set aside differences and focus on the future.

Turkey's new cabinet also includes Cevdet Yilmaz, another orthodox economic manager, as vice president, and the former head of the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) Hakan Fidan as foreign minister, replacing Mevlut Cavusoglu.

Erdogan's inauguration ceremony at Ankara's presidential palace was attended by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and other dignitaries and high-level officials.

The apparent U-turn on the economy comes as many analysts say the big emerging market is heading for turmoil given depleted foreign reserves, an expanding state-backed protected deposits scheme, and unchecked inflation expectations.

Simsek, 56, was highly regarded by financial markets when he served as finance minister and deputy prime minister between 2009 and 2018.

Reuters reported earlier this week Erdogan was almost certain to put him in charge of the economy, marking a partial return to more free-market policies after years of increasing state control of forex, credit and debt markets.

QUESTION OF INDEPENDENCE

Analysts said that after past episodes in which Erdogan pivoted to orthodoxy only to quickly return to his rate-cutting ways, much would depend on how much independence Simsek is granted.

"This suggests Erdogan has recognised the eroding trust in his ability to manage Turkey’s economic challenges. But while Simsek’s appointment is likely to delay a crisis, it is unlikely to present long-term fixes to the economy," said Emre Peker, a director at Eurasia Group covering Turkey.

"Simsek will likely have a strong mandate early in his tenure, but face rapidly increasing political headwinds to implement policies as March 2024 local elections draw near."

Erdogan's economic programme since 2021 stresses monetary stimulus and targeted credit to boost economic growth, exports and investments, pressing the central bank into action and badly eroding its independence.

As a result, annual inflation hit a 24-year peak beyond 85% last year before easing.

The lira has lost more than 90% of his value in the last decade after a series of crashes, the worst in late 2021. It hit new all-time lows beyond 20 to the dollar after the May 28 vote.

'WAYS TO RECONCILE'

Turkey's longest-serving leader, Erdogan won 52.2% support in the runoff, defying polls that predicted economic strains would lead to his defeat.

His new mandate will allow Erdogan to pursue the increasingly authoritarian policies that have polarised the country, a NATO member, but strengthened its position as a regional military power.

At the inauguration ceremony, attended by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Erdogan struck a conciliatory tone.

"We will embrace all 85 million people regardless of their political views ... Let's put aside the resentment of the election period. Let's look for ways to reconcile," he said.

"Together, we must look ahead, focus on the future, and try to say new things. We should try to build the future by learning from the mistakes of the past."

Earlier, reading out the oath of office, Erdogan vowed to protect Turkey's independence and integrity, to abide by the constitution, and to follow the principles of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the modern secular republic.

Erdogan became prime minister in 2003 after his AK Party won an election in late 2002 following Turkey's worst economic crisis since the 1970s.

In 2014, he became the country's first popularly elected president and was elected again in 2018 after securing new executive powers for the presidency in a 2017 referendum.

© Reuters. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan shakes hands with the new Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek as they are flanked by new Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar during a press conference where the new cabinet was announced, in Ankara, Turkey June 3, 2023. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

The May 14 presidential election and May 28 runoff were pivotal given that the opposition had been confident of ousting Erdogan and reversing many of his policies, including proposing sharp interest rate hikes to counter inflation, running at 44% in April.

In his post-election victory speech, Erdogan said inflation was Turkey's most urgent issue.

(Writing and additional reporting by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Frances Kerry, Giles Elgood and Christina Fincher)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.