Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
NEW! Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+ Try 7 Days Free

Unpredictable? Pollster's shares shrug off forecasts

Stock Markets Dec 23, 2015 13:50
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
© Reuters. Unpredictable? Pollster's shares shrug off forecasts

LONDON (Reuters) - How's this for an unexpected outcome: shares of London-listed pollster YouGov (L:YOU) have risen 14 percent so far this year, soundly beating the broader market, despite a bum steer on the UK election.

Yet political polling matters far less to the small-cap company's bottom line than market research. While YouGov's president admitted "we got it wrong" with too-close-to-call forecasts for an election where David Cameron's Conservatives triumphed, corporate clients have shown no sign of deserting.

YouGov's stock has outperformed blue-chip UK and pan-European equities and trades at a premium to larger European marketing companies such as France's Ipsos (PA:ISOS). Seven out of 12 analysts rate it "Buy" or higher.

"YouGov's political analysis has proven to be very wrong, but they are performing quite well in the corporate world," said Alex de Groote, an analyst at Peel Hunt, describing the company as more of a "data technology" play than a pure pollster.

The corporate market is challenging. Shares of Germany's GfK (DE:GFKG) hit a four-year low this week after it issued a profit warning, and spending on advertising is slowing in Brazil, Russia and China, according to ZenithOptimedia. Ipsos has called emerging markets "disappointing". But next year two big political events could put pollsters back in the public eye - November's U.S. presidential election and, potentially, a referendum on Britain's European Union membership.

YouGov says it has a "long history of accuracy" on political polling and will be able to address some of the problems posed by the UK election. Numis Securities analyst Paul Richards said last month he expected 9 percent revenue growth from 2015 to 2017.

"Right now I don't see any new factors in the world which would lead us to think we can't deliver," said YouGov Chief Financial Officer Alan Newman.

But YouGov's share price rise means pressure to deliver on expectations. "One bad (political polling) mistake is fair enough. Two or three and people will start to ask questions," said Peel Hunt's de Groote.

Unpredictable? Pollster's shares shrug off forecasts

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Our Apps
© 2007-2022 Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
  • Sign up for FREE and get:
  • Real-Time Alerts
  • Advanced Portfolio Features
  • Personalized Charts
  • Fully-Synced App
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email