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Turbulent Outlook For American Airlines: Analysts Cut Forecasts As Competitive Pressures Mount

Published 29/05/2024, 20:30
© Reuters.  Turbulent Outlook For American Airlines: Analysts Cut Forecasts As Competitive Pressures Mount
AAL
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JETS
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Benzinga - by Lekha Gupta, Benzinga Editor.

American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) shares are trading lower after the company lowered its second-quarter adjusted EPS guidance and analysts cut the price target.

Yesterday, the airline lowered its second-quarter adjusted EPS forecast from $1.15-$1.45 to $1.00-$1.15, and the average fuel price is now expected to be approximately $2.70 to $2.80 per gallon of jet fuel.

The company also announced the departure of its Chief Commercial Officer Vasu Raja.

BofA Securities analyst Andrew G. Didora slashed the price target from $12 to $11 while reiterating the Underperform rating.

The analyst says that the guidance cut seems to be a combination of both higher domestic competition (competitor fare sales and higher capacity) and a loss of corporate share, given a de-emphasis post-pandemic.

Given the Chief Commercial Officer transition, Didora expects the company to pivot back to a more corporate-focused sales strategy, which could take some time to yield benefits.

The analyst lowered the second-quarter EPS estimate to $1.05 (from $1.20) and expects an FY24 EPS forecast of $2.20.

Seaport Research Partners analyst Daniel McKenzie downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

The analyst writes that American Airlines’ revenue challenges are likely to persist beyond this summer, given increasing ultra-low-cost carrier growth at its top hubs.

The analyst stated earlier that AAL would likely guide to the lower end of its second quarter outlook and that there was $0.15-$0.20/share of downside risk to consensus, given a softening in pricing to Europe and the Caribbean per pricing study.

Consequently, the analyst cut the EPS estimate to $2.05 (from $2.85 vs. consensus $2.49) for FY24 and to $2.30 (from $3.50 vs. consensus $3.18) for FY25.

Also, Jefferies downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold and lowered its price target from $17 to $12.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE:JETS) and Themes Airlines ETF (NASDAQ:AIRL).

Price Action: AAL shares are down 15.1% at $11.42 at the last check Wednesday.

Photo via Shutterstock

Latest Ratings for AAL

DateFirmActionFromTo
Mar 2022Seaport GlobalDowngradesBuyNeutral
Jan 2022Redburn PartnersDowngradesBuyNeutral
Jan 2022Morgan StanleyUpgradesUnderweightEqual-Weight
View More Analyst Ratings for AAL

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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