Middle East tensions "testing" European stock market resilience - Barclays

Investing.com - Recent tensions in the Middle East have begun to test the resilience of European stock markets, according to analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC).

But in a note to clients, the brokerage said concerns over the implications of the conflict between Israel and Iran have added to "fatigue" rather than "stress" in the region’s equity markets, which have risen so far this year despite these potential headwinds.

"Investors remain watchful of the situation, although there are little signs of panic yet," the strategists led by Emmanuel Cau said in a note.

They added that "recent Middle East crises" could end up offering a "good buying opportunity," arguing that shocks from ructions in oil markets tend to be "short lived."

"In fact if the conflict results in bringing more stability and peace to the Middle East, it could be seen as bullish for risk assets over the medium term," the analysts said.

Still, they acknowledged that European equity-market price action could be "choppier" depending on the state of the fighting in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, the Barclays strategists said they "remain skeptical of a structural re-rating" of an energy sector that has been largely tethered to movements in oil prices sparked recently by fighting between Israel and Iran.

On Tuesday, Israel accused Iran of violating a ceasefire agreement previously announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Tehran has denied the claim.

Oil prices, which had fallen sharply amid hopes for easing tensions in the Middle East and fading worries over potential disruptions to oil supply flows through the region, trimmed some of these losses.

Elsewhere, the Barclays analysts flagged renewed trade-related risks facing European equities. An early July expiration of Trump’s delay to his punishing "reciprocal" tariffs is just weeks away, with questions swirling around whether this temporary relief will be extended.

This uncertainty, coupled with a stronger euro, have dented this year’s outperformance in European stocks, they said.