Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan in a note dated Friday has downgraded Whitbread (LON:WTB) to a “neutral” rating, citing concerns over the weakening UK consumer environment, particularly among lower-income demographics.
The brokerage has also reduced its price target for the company by about 30% to 3,000p, reflecting a downward revision in profit estimates and a reassessment of valuation multiples.
The decision to downgrade Whitbread comes as economic pressures continue to weigh on the spending capacity of UK consumers, particularly in lower-income brackets.
Recent earnings disappointments from UK retailers such as Greggs (LON:GRG), B&M, and Dunelm (LON:DNLM) have underscored the fragility of consumer demand.
J.P. Morgan’s analysis indicates that the trend is particularly pronounced among those in the third and fourth income quintiles, groups that historically contribute to the hospitality sector.
This shift in consumer behavior has raised concerns about Whitbread’s near-term revenue prospects.
J.P. Morgan has lowered its pre-tax profit estimates for Whitbread by an average of 9% for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028.
The revision follows reduced expectations for revenue per available room growth, which had initially been projected to improve due to more favorable year-on-year comparisons.
However, weaker-than-expected consumer spending has led the firm to reconsider its forecasts. Whitbread’s UK portfolio is now expected to reach approximately 97,000 rooms by fiscal year 2030, slightly below the prior estimate of 98,000.
The company’s expansion strategy in Germany has also been reassessed, with J.P. Morgan projecting a more gradual growth trajectory in that market.
The brokerage has also adjusted its valuation approach, applying a lower earnings multiple to Whitbread’s UK operations.
The company’s UK business is now valued at approximately nine times its one-year forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, down from the previous multiple of 10.5x.
This represents a 5% discount to its ten-year historical average, reflecting heightened caution regarding the UK consumer outlook.
Despite the downgrade, J.P. Morgan acknowledges Whitbread’s strong fundamentals and long-term growth strategy.
The company remains well-positioned in the budget hotel segment, where Premier Inn continues to hold a dominant market share.
However, the near-term risk-reward profile appears less attractive given macroeconomic headwinds and weaker-than-expected demand trends.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan has reaffirmed its preference for Accor (EPA:ACCP), which has been upgraded as the top pick in the sector.
Accor’s diversified business model, stronger RevPAR momentum, and ongoing restructuring efforts, including the planned disposal of AccorInvest, have positioned the company for superior upside potential.
The price target for Accor has been raised by 8% to €58.5, reflecting the bank’s confidence in the stock’s re-rating potential.