Investing.com -- Supply reforms and a possible demand stimulus could unlock material value in the UK housebuilding sector, Barclays (LON:BARC) strategists said Tuesday, with the sector’s performance currently tied to rates outlook.
The investment bank suggests that a revival of the ‘Help-to-Buy’ scheme could lead to over 50% earnings growth and a boost in returns of more than 400 basis points within two years.
“We expect the sector to remain hostage to the ‘higher for longer’ rates environment over the remainder of the year, but sector valuations at a discount to long-term averages mean that we see scope for significant upside from an eventual recovery in volumes,” analysts Rajesh Patki and Emily Biddulph said in a note.
Barclays forecasts a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5% in completions in the near term, supported by stronger order books and outlet growth due to planning reforms. This growth is expected to contribute to a gradual improvement in sector returns from the lows of 2024 to over 8% by 2027.
Despite the muted earnings outlook, the bank considers the sector’s valuation, which suggests a long-term Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) of below 11%, to be overly pessimistic.
In light of discussions about potential demand intervention, Barclays has run an upside scenario analysis.
Assuming a 10% increase in volumes and a 5% rise in Average Selling Prices (ASPs) over two years, they predict a significant jump in earnings expectations and a returns boost to 12%.
“With further potential for improvement as supply reforms lower the need for proportional investment, we see scope for earnings multiples to at least remain at current levels,” the analysts noted.
“While any actual upside would depend on the details of any announced policy, we view our assumptions (and the associated upside potential) as realistic in the near term.”
Within the sector, Barclays favors stocks with good visibility or self-help opportunities for the remainder of the year.
The firm has highlighted Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LON:BKGH), Barratt Redrow (LON:RDW), and Bellway (LON:BWY) as stocks that screen strong, citing potential upsides from Berkeley’s build-to-rent portfolio and Barratt’s returns accretion following the integration of Redrow.
Bellway is noted for its strong position in terms of order book and outlet visibility.
Meanwhile, analysts remain cautious about Vistry Group PLC (LON:VTYV) due to recent profit warnings and perceived balance sheet weaknesses.