Investing.com -- Macquarie projects the global market for humanoid robots to reach $139 billion by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% from 2026 to 2035.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk believes his company can hit mass production of humanoid robots of 0.5-1.0m units in 2027/28, a figure that Macquarie analysts believe could reach 1.1 million and 6.3 million in 2031 and 2035, respectively.
The expansion of the humanoid robot market is expected to benefit a number of companies within Tesla’s humanoid robot supply chain. Within its coverage, Macquarie identifies Sanhua Intelligent (SZ:002050), Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co Ltd (SS:688017), Hengli Hydraulic (SS:601100), and Shuanghuan Driveline (SZ:002472) as potential stock beneficiaries.
In its Tuesday note, Macquarie highlighted the distinction between industrial and humanoid robots, noting that the latter are anticipated to be used not only in manufacturing plants but also in consumer applications.
While industrial robots are primarily utilized in manufacturing settings, humanoid robots, due to their interaction and self-learning capabilities, are expected to complement industrial robots, particularly in final assembly and testing at new energy vehicle (NEV) and 3C (computer, communication, and consumer electronics) plants.
The investment bank also touched on the comparative strengths of Tesla in the humanoid robot sector.
According to Macquarie’s expert, Tesla leads in various aspects including robot body, components, intelligent technology, and motion control.
“Tesla Optimus’ design of a linear actuator with roller screws could become the final solution, despite rotation actuator being the main design option for most humanoid robots,” Macquarie analysts said.
However, the firm’s expert cautions that the successful commercialization of humanoid robots will depend on high-quality data collection, which remains a significant barrier.
“Many domestic humanoid robots with fascinating features may find it difficult for realistic application and successful commercialization,” the note explains.
Stocks with exposure to humanoid robots have experienced a substantial rally in 2025, surging 25-65% year to date, broadly outperforming the wider Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index’s 1.6% gain.
While some near-term price weakness is expected, Macquarie anticipates that ongoing news flow will provide longer-term support for these stocks.