- FTSE 100 climbs 95 points to 8,229
- UK unemployment unchanged at 4.4%, wage growth slows
- Pound climbs to new six-month high vs US dollar
- Helped by comments on trade deal from JD Vance
- Trading updates from B&M, Wise (LON:WISEa), Halfords, Robert Walters and more
4:30pm: FTSE 100 climbs 118 points
London’s blue-chip benchmark was up 118 points, 1.46%, on Tuesday closing the session at 8,252 – as Wall Street made a positive start across the pond
2.45pm: Stocks on the charge again
US stocks have opened higher, and European markets are also surging to new highs for the session.
The Dow Jones rose 0.5% at the open, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 0.6%.
Back in Europe, the Footsie is up almost 100 points, or 1.15%, while on the mainland, the DAX is up 1.1% and the CAC 0.3% higher.
2.21pm: Dollar confidence crisis
"The world is facing a dollar confidence crisis," says Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn)’s macro strategy team, seeing the repercussions of Donald Trump’s ’’liberation day’ continuing to reverberate.
"This potentially marks the largest shock to the world’s financial and trading system since the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971," writes strategist Marion Laboure.
Although the US President’s 90-day tariff reprieve and the exceptions on smartphones and computers have lessened the impact, "much damage has already been done thanks to extreme levels of uncertainty around the credibility and direction of policymaking".
Laboure says the US’s "exorbitant privilege of being able to comfortably fund its twin deficits is perhaps the largest consequence of recent events, and may ultimately determine how far the US administration is able to continue this policy".
Trump’s moves have accelerated a US/China decoupling, which also risk the trade war turning "into a financial one".
Beijing is prioritising domestic stimulus as a strategic response, with Deutsche’s economists predicting that President Xi’s "whatever it takes" fiscal boost will be announced before June.
The bank economists have cut their forecasts for US growth in 2025 has to 0.9% in the fourth quarter, with China down to 4.5% for 2025 and euro area growth downgraded to 0.5%.
"Still, the EU has the opportunity to engineer stronger domestic demand in this situation, and recent events have at last shaken Europe into action. Germany’s historic defence and infrastructure pivot – which will be reinforced by the rest of the EU – is a big step towards a new, more domestic economic strategy in Europe."
2pm: BoA follows Goldman in reporting strong trading profits
Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) reported higher profits for the first quarter, with equities trading boosted by market volatility in the wake of Trump’s policymaking.
A day after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reported record trading profits, Bank of America reported a 12th straight quarter of growth for its sales and trading business.
Chief executive Brian Moynihan said consumers continue to spend while maintaining healthy credit profiles, but warned that "we potentially face a changing economy."
In a sign of caution in the face of market jitters about a recession and President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, Bank of America’s provision for credit losses rose by $200 million to $1.5 billion.
Net interest income increased 3% to $14.4 billion, while trading revenues rose 9%, helped by a 17% increase in equities trading.
12.55pm: European markets come back as US futures in red
US futures are pointing to a slight retreat, reversing some of the gains in the previous session, while gains on European markets have been trimmed in the past couple of hours.
Dow Jones futures and those for the S&P 500 are both down 0.3%, while for the Nasdaq they are down 0.25%.
11.50am: Oil forecasts cut
US tariffs and the trade war between the US and China are "likely weigh on economic growth this year and are likely to result in oil demand growing at a slower speed this year," says UBS.
As such, strategist Giovanni Staunovo at the Swiss bank has reduced his forecast for Brent by $12 to $68 a barrel.
That compares to a price of $64.5 this morning and $75 at the start of the month.
At the same time, he expects WTI to trade at $64 a barrel, versus $61 today.
11.29am: Tariff reversal hopes boost carmakers
European markets are on the front foot, with the DAX up 1.3% and FTSE 100 rising 1%, in the wake of comments from Donald Trump that he is "looking at something" to help car companies with tariffs.
Automakers Stellantis (LON:0QXR), BMW, VW and Daimler (ETR:MBGn), car parts manufacturer Valeo (EPA:VLOF) and tyre maker Continental are among the big risers on the Continent. Aston Martin (LON:AML) Lagonda Global Holdings PLC (LSE:AML) was up over 5% earlier, but has come off a bit.
Market analyst Josh Mahony at Scope Markets says: "This serves to double down on the weekend narrative that Trump will reverse some of his tariffs once company execs approach him to highlight the huge negative implications of his actions."
The UK jobs report’s lower-than-expected metrics across claimant count and average earnings this morning, which comes ahead of tomorrow’s UK inflation report, has seen the pound strengthen to bring GBP/USD into a six-month high today - the highest for stertling since the start of October (see chart below).
Comments from JD Vance on a possible trade deal may also be boosting sentiment, though they were far from detailed.
Mahony also notes that Washington’s Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff has been busy trying to make deals in Iran and Russia over recent days, "and there appears to be some progress being made on both sides".
Meanwhile, Witkoff’s marathon talks with Vladimir Putin "also appear to have made some headway on finding a lasting peace solution with Ukraine, although it makes sense to be cautious given previous signs that Russia seeks to prolong talks without ending the conflict".
Crucially, says Mahony, both the Iran and Russia issues play out along the same theme, whereby a deal could see any sanctions removed and energy production increased.
With oil prices recently falling to a four-year low, there is "clearly a desire for Trump to maintain pressure on oil in a bid to limit inflation pressures", he adds.
10.40am: US tariffs unconstitutional, says lawsuit
A US free market think tank has issued a lawsuit calling on the US court of international trade to block the White House’s new trade tariffs.
The lawsuit was filed by the Liberty Justice Center, a legal advocacy arm of the Illinois Policy Institute, on behalf of a handful of US importers.
"No one person should have the power to impose taxes that have such vast global economic consequences," lawyers said in a statement. "The Constitution gives the power to set tax rates – including tariffs – to Congress, not the President."
The case was filed on behalf of five owner-operated businesses, including a New York-based importer of wines and spirits, and a company that manufactures ABS pipe using imported resin from South Korea and Taiwan.
10.14am: AIM float
Accountant MHA Plc made its market debut on London’s AIM this morning, with the shares moving slightly higher.
The Milton Keynes-headquartered group raised £98 million through selling shares priced at 100p, valuing the business at £271 million.
In a statement, chair Geoff Barnes says "MHA is a successful and growing business … our admission to the market marks the next exciting stage in our evolution", with the new cash intended to be spent on things including AI and bolt-on acquisitions.
Barnes says management are planning a phase of growth that will see the firm become a ‘top 10’ accountant, targeting annual revenue of £500 million in "the medium term".
The shares have inched up to 101.5p so far.
9.50am: Halfords up, Pod Point down
Outside the FTSE 350, there’s some movers worth noting.
Halfords Group PLC (LSE:LON:HFD) is up 10%, bouncing off a five-year low in recent days, as the retailer said profits for the past year are expected to be at the upper end of its previous guidance, allowing CEO Graham Stapleton to leave on a high.
As of today, Stapleton has stepped down after seven years at the wheel. He will be succeeded by Henry Birch, former boss of the online retailer Very Group, previously in the same role of Rank Group (LON:RNK) and William Hill’s online business.
Shares in Pod Point Group Holdings PLC (LSE:LON:PODP) have tumbled 21% after the electric vehicle charging company warned that its full-year adjusted EBITDA loss would be significantly worse than expected.
Ahead of its audited results on April 29, the group said it had uncovered bad debts linked to the period from 2020 to 2024 that it no longer expects to collect, meaning it will take an £8 million hit, pushing its adjusted EBITDA loss to around £22 million - well below the previously guided £14 million.
9.33am: Anglo-US tariff deal has ’good chance’, says Vance
The US Vice-President, JD Vance, says there is a "good chance" a trade deal between the US and Britain can be agreed.
In an interview with UnHerd, he said that Washington was "working very hard with Keir Starmer’s government" on a potential agreement.
"I think there’s good chance that, yes, we’ll come to a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries," he said, adding that Anglo-US connection is "a very important relationship".
The VP said the UK has a "much more reciprocal relationship" with the US than with Germany and many other countries.
But he admitted that Trump’s aim is "lower trade deficits, really across the board", with the unspoken extra reason why a deal to avoid tariffs could be closer than for some other economics, is that the UK only has a small trade surplus with the US.
Vance admitted that, "Sometimes, a trade deficit makes sense. Like, America doesn’t produce bananas. So obviously, we’re gonna be importing bananas, not exporting bananas. So with certain product categories and maybe even with some countries, a small trading deficit can be justified."
9.14am: FTSE continuing to surge higher
The FTSE 100 is turning yesterday’s sprint into a middle-distance effort, extending the rally to regain the 8,200 milestone first breached a year ago this month, but wiped out in one of the initial waves of Trump tariff anxiety earlier this month.
Since plunging to a low of 7,544 on Monday last week, the index has bounced back 8.7%.
Precious metals miner Fresnillo (LON:FRES), private equity group 3i (LON:III) and retailer Kingfisher (LON:KGF) are topping the leaderboard this morning.
Kingfisher is likely to be lifted by the retail sales data from the BRC, which showed underlying strengthening of demand and gardening and DIY equipment "flying off the shelves".
Looking at the overall picture, market analyst Richard Hunter at Interactive Investor noted that US markets shook off a brief dip into the red last night, calling it "another turbulent trading session which encapsulated the current theme where sentiment can turn on a sixpence".
"The optimists are beginning to hope that the most recent pronouncements from the White House represent a dialling down of the extreme measures initially proposed, with the car industry potentially joining some of the technology sector in seeing lesser tariffs.
"However, the situation remains far from clear, with the pharmaceuticals now seemingly in the crosshairs of the President, which has weighed on the major European players."
He sees the FTSE indices as moving higher as a raft of data "suggested some defiant resilience in the domestic economy".
Barclays (LON:BARC) shares are being lifted by read across from the Goldman Sachs earnings, Hunter says, with shares in the UK bank having risen by 13% over the last week and by 49% over the last year.
"At its full-year numbers in February, the group attributed 44% of revenues to its US division, which should augur well for its own first-quarter report at the end of the month."
8.50am: Frasers pops Down Under
Shares in Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group PLC (LSE:FRAS) are up 2% after it announced a partnership with Aussie-listed Accent Group to launch its Sports Direct (LON:FRAS) retail chain Down Under.
Ashley and Frasers first acquired a stake in Accent last August and have agreed to increase it to just under 20% under this new deal, where the Australian company will act as a franchisee for Sports Direct business in Australia and New Zealand.
The plan is for an initial rollout of at least 50 Sports Direct stores plus online over the first six years, with a total of 100 stores envisaged under the 25-year agreement.
In return, Frasers will help "leverage" its brand relationships with global brands like Nike (NYSE:NKE), Adidas (ETR:ADSGN), Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) and New Balance, as well as provide access to its (it has to be said, much less attractive) owned brands, including Everlast, Slazenger and Lonsdale.
Frasers CEO Michael Murray boasts that the deal "reaffirms our commitment to drive growth of the Sports Direct brand internationally and marks a significant step forward in our ambition to becoming the leading global sporting goods retailer".
8.31am: LVMH (EPA:LVMH) shocker hits Burberry
Burberry Group PLC (LSE:LON:BRBY) is the biggest faller on the FTSE 350 this morning, down 4.5%.
The British fashion house has no news out this morning, but investors are reading across to the first-quarter update from massive French rival Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy (EPA:MC) overnight, where revenues came in lower than expected.
Spending in the US on beauty products and drinks declined, while sales in China stayed weak.
This led to group organic sales dropping 3%, a shocker compared to the average analyst forecast for 2% growth.
LVMH shares are down 8% this morning.
8.12am: FTSE 100 rushes out of the blocks
The FTSE 100 has come out of the blocks faster than expected, up almost 43 points or 0.5% to 8,177 in opening trades.
Kingfisher and M&G are the early risers, followed by Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW) and St James (LON:SJP)’s Place.
Only five shares are in the red at the moment, led by Diageo (LON:DGE), down 1.8%, and AstraZeneca (LON:AZN), down almost 1%.
On the FTSE 250, B&M is up 4% after its year-end update.
7.55am: The jobs market china shop ’before the tariff bull was let loose’
The slight pressure on wage growth seen in the ONS data is likely to turn into sharper pressure on the brakes in the following few releases.
"While the jobs market softened further," says Ashley Webb at Capital Economics, "there were few signs of this feeding through to slower wage growth.
"But if the more uncertain backdrop from the recent US tariffs chaos soon becomes a bigger drag on firms’ hiring intentions, pay growth could start to fade more markedly."
He noted that employment continued to cool, "but it hasn’t collapsed as the dire warnings from some business surveys suggested", with the PAYE measure of employment in March slowing from +0.1% to -0.2%.
"That’s the first negative reading since April 2021 and provides some tentative evidence that businesses started to respond to rises in business taxes and the minimum wage from this month by reducing headcount.
"Jobs growth could be hit further from the recent increase in uncertainty due to the chaotic way US tariff policy is being set."
Overall, while wage growth remains "too high", Webb reckons the Bank of England might start to become "less worried about the upside risks to inflation from pay growth and more worried about the downside risks to activity".
As Sarah Coles at Hargreaves Lansdown (LON:HRGV) puts it, this data is "a snapshot taken in the china shop before the tariff bull was let loose".
7.35am: B&M narrows guidance, says new CEO coming soon
B&M European Value Retail SA (LSE:BME) has issued a year-end trading statement, narrowing its profit guidance for the past year to March and saying that new chief executive will be announced "in the coming weeks".
Following a profit warning in February, where it said lowered its EBITDA outlook to between £605 million and £625 million, the discounter said the final number is likely to be "above the midpoint" of that guidance.
Like-for-like sales for the UK business fell 3.1%, with a decline of 1.8% in the fourth quarter, while France was positive.
The board reported making "progress" on the replacement of CEO Alex Russo, who departed alongside the profit warning.
7.19am: Wage growth slows slightly
The ONS says that UK average weekly wages grew 5.6% year-on-year in the three months to February, lower than the average forecast of 5.7%.
Weekly pay excluding bonuses was up 5.9%, again lower than the 6.0% expected.
Private sector earnings ex-bonuses were up 5.9%.
"Regular pay growth remains strong having increased slightly in the latest period," said ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown.
"Growth accelerated in the public sector as previous pay rises fully fed through to our headline figures, while pay in the private sector was little changed."
Alongside the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4%, the number of employees on payroll fell slightly over the same period.
"Vacancies fell once again on the quarter and are now below pre-pandemic levels for the first time since the spring of 2021," McKeown pointed out.
7.15am: FTSE 100 to make cautious start
A cautious FTSE 100 start is predicted on Tuesday, following a modestly positive session on Wall Street overnight and with a slew of UK data to crunch this morning.
On the futures market the London equity benchmark has been called 20 points higher, to add to the 170-point rally that started the week and left the index at 8,134.3.
Overnight, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones gained 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added just over 0.6%, with strong initial gains for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and other tech giants fading over the session, and some like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Meta ending in the red.
Asian markets are mixed this morning, with Japan’s and India’s benchmarks up 1% and 2.1%, respectively, but China’s main indices lower.
Overnight, it was reported that Japanese car giant Nissan is preparing to cut domestic production of its top-selling US model due to tariffs, which sent its shares higher.
The main UK data this morning is the labour market numbers from the Office of National Statistics, where unemployment remained at 4.4% in the three months to February and wages grew less than expected. More on that shortly.
What to watch on Tuesday 15 April
Discount retailer B&M European Value Retail SA (LSE:BME) reports for the first time after issuing a profit warning in February and revealing that chief executive Alex Russo was departing. Analysts at Citi felt the slide in the share price was overdone and fails to reflect the company’s earnings potential as a dominant player in UK variety discount retail...read more
Announcements due:
Trading updates: B&M European Value Retail, IntegraFin (LON:IHPI) Holdings, Rio Tinto (LON:RIO)
Finals: Billington Holdings, Everyman Media Group, S&U, TinyBuild
Overseas earnings: Bank of America, Citigroup (NYSE:C), Johnson & Johnson, LVMH, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) (all pre-market), Interactive Brokers, Omnicom, United Airlines (all post-market)
AGMs: Light Science Technologies, Porvair, Zenith Energy
Economic announcements: Unemployment (UK), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (UK), ZEW Survey (EU), Industrial Production (EU), Import and Export Price Indices (US)