Proactive Investors -
- FTSE 100 adds 40 points
- Marston's and SSP rise as results impress
- BRC retail sales show fall in November after later Black Friday
8.31am: Retail sales 'should bounce back strongly'
The fall in UK retail sales shown by the BRC data earlier was likely to be due to Black Friday falling in the December reporting period this year compared to November last year, which "helps explain the sharp drop in non-food sales" says economist Elliott Jordan-Doak at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
"The hangover from the October 30 Budget and Ofgem’s energy price increase in October probably also weighed on spending," though he notes that the GfK consumer confidence measure increased in November, so Black Friday timing seems to be the main explanation.
Non-food sales could also have been impacted by the weather, he says, with unusually warm temperatures for much of the month deterring consumers from buying warm weather clothing.
"Accordingly, retail sales growth should bounce back strongly in December," he says, noting that retail sales data are volatile generally but the 3.3% year-on-year fall in retail sales values drags the three-month average down to -0.2%, which is well below the paltry average of 0.4% from the first half of the year.
"We expect retail sales growth to continue gradually improving as real incomes gain ground and the MPC cuts interest rates. Admittedly, higher borrowing costs in the wake of the Budget as markets repriced for fewer interest rate could dampen consumers willingness to spend in November, but the GfK consumer confidence index in November recovered three of the eight points it lost in the two months before the Budget, house prices surged in November according to the Nationwide index, and consumer spending rose 0.5% quarter-to-quarter in Q3. Accordingly, we would mostly look through this sharp drop in the BRC index."
8.12am: FTSE flies to positive start
The FTSE 100 is striding higher in initial trading, gaining 31 points or 0.4% to 8,344.
Housebuilders are providing a boost, rebounding from the falls yesterday on reports of a new tax, while miners and banks are also among the risers.
And the FTSE 250 is also up 0.4% to 20,847, led by airports retail specialist SSP Group plc (LSE:SSPG), up 10% on the back of full-year results.
Marston's is up 4% on the back of its annual results.
7.59am: Retail sales hit by later Black Friday
The UK retail sector saw sales fall 3.3% last month, the first decline in the yearly growth measure since June, according to the British Retail Consortium.
This was mainly because of a later Black Friday this year, having been in the November reporting period last year.
Like-for-like sales shrank 3.4% year-over-year, below the consensus forecast for a 0.6% drop.
The later Black Friday period led to non-food sales decreasing 3.3% in the month of November and online non-food sales tumbling 10.3%, while over the three months to November non-food sales fell 2.1%.
Food sales increased 2.4% over three-month period but was in growth in the month.
7.43am: Marston's serves up strong results
Marston’s PLC (LSE:MARS) has also unveiled something cool this morning, if you like big improvements in profits that is.
The pub company has reported a £42.1 million underlying pre-tax profit for the year to 28 September, a 64.5% increase on the year before.
Revenues of £898.6 million were up 3% on the year before, with like-for-like sales up 4.8% to outpace the broader market as both food and drink sales bubbled higher.
Investors and analysts in pub companies have been fretting over the reaction to the Autumn Budget, but Marston's said it "puts some additional pressure on costs, but the overall package of measures is considered manageable" in the context of the strategic targets it set at its capital markets day in October...read more
7.24am: Jaguar unveils 'pretty cool' new EV
Jaguar has unveiled its new electric car - and as one younger colleague says, "I honestly think it's pretty cool".
The Jaguar Type 00 will be an electric four‑door GT – to be revealed in late 2025 and built in the UK.
The British carmaker, owned by India's Tata Motors, says the launch of the recaptures its original ethos to "copy nothing" and is "a fearless statement. An object of desire. A concept with bold forms and exuberant proportions to inspire future Jaguars."
What do you think?
Potential buyers have two colours, dubbed Miami Pink and London Blue, with the model using dedicated Jaguar electric architecture (JEA) and targeting a range of over 430 miles.
7.16am: FTSE to extend gains
The FTSE 100 looks set to extend its gains on Tuesday following a mixed session overnight for US stocks as the White House announced new restrictions on China’s semiconductor sector.
London's blue-chip index has been called 10 points higher on the futures market, following a solid start to the week where it added almost 26 points or 0.3% to reach 8,312.9.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit new highs, rising 0.2% and 1% respectively, while the Dow Jones fell 0.3% and the Russell 2000 was just below flat.
Asian markets are all in green this morning, led by Japan's Nikkei, up 1.9%, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are both up around 0.4%.
5am: What to look out for on Tuesday
Marston's will be among those to report on Tuesday, while retail sales figures for November from the British Retail Consortium will also be in focus.
The Budget's impact on pubs will once again be in focus when Marston's updates... Read more
Announcements due:
Interims: Altitude Group PLC, DiscoverIE Group PLC, Mind Gym PLC, Personal Assets Trust (LON:PNL) PLC, Sysgroup PLC, Vianet Group PLC, Ondo InsurTech PLC (LON:ONDO)
Finals: Gooch & Housego PLC, Greencore Group (LON:GNC) PLC, Oxford Metrics PLC, On the Beach Group (LON:OTB) PLC, Paragon Banking Group PLC (LON:PAGPA), SSP Group plc (LSE:SSPG), Marston's PLC
US earnings: Salesforce Inc
AGMs: Brand Architekts Group PLC, Cordel Group PLC (LON:CRDL), CQS New City High Yield Fund Ltd, PRS REIT, Rosslyn Data Technologies PLC, Schroder Oriental Income Fund, The Revel Collective PLC, Tungsten West PLC (LON:TUNT)
Economic announcements: BRC Retail Sales (UK)