- FTSE 100 down 113 points at 8,487
- Overnight Wall Street sell-off saw Nasdaq fall 4%
- UK retail sales growth slowed last month
- Updates from Persimmon (LON:PSN), Boohoo (LON:BOOH), Domino’s Pizza, Kier and Costain in focus
4.05pm: FTSE down as GBP up
The FTSE 100 seemed to climb away from its worst levels but as we head into Tuesday’s final half hour of trading has slumped lower, down 1.3% at below 8,500.
This is the lowest since late January, coming as the pound climbs to its strongest against the US dollar since November, up 0.5% to 1.294.
British Airways owner IAG is the top faller, down 6.4% as investors read across from the warning of softer demand from US airline Delta yesterday.
Holiday Inn owner IHG (LON:IHG) is also down 3.6%.
Pest controller Rentokil (LON:RTO), down 4.5%, and industrial components groups Diploma (LON:DPLM) and Spirax (LON:SPX), down 4.4% and 3.8%, are next.
Spirax had results today and expects 4% growth this year.
All but one of the FTSE 100’s largest companies’ shares are in the red, with AstraZeneca (LON:AZN), Unilever (LON:ULVR) and GSK (LON:GSK) all down close to 3%.
A ray of positivity was from housebuilder Persimmon, which climbed 5% on the back of its results, lifting others in the sector.
Engineer Rotork (LON:ROR) topped the FTSE 250, while construction group Kier led the fallers.
TP ICAP (LON:NXGN) rose 2.7% as it detailed plans to list its data and analytics business in the US by the second quarter and announced a £30 million share buyback.
3.47pm: US jobs data
US job openings and quit data was out earlier.
The JOLTS job openings rose to 7,740K in January, from a downwardly revised 7,508K in December, above the consensus forecast of 7,600K.
Total job postings in January were unaffected by the federal government hiring freeze ordered by President Trump on January 20.
Federal government postings fell by only 3K to 135K, even though the JOLTS data reflect postings on the last business day of the month.
"January’s JOLTS report was not much to shout about, timelier labour market data suggest conditions look set to worsen amid DOGE’s gutting of the federal workforce," says Bradley Saunders at Capital Economics.
"We remain optimistic for now, though, given the health of private sector hiring in February’s employment report."
Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that relatively few workers are voluntarily switching to new employers, with the private sector quits rate rising to 2.3% from 2.1% in December, in line with its low 2024 average.
"The combination of the further decline in postings since January and the drop in consumers’ confidence suggests that the quits rate will fall further this year.
"That in turn will give employers the upper hand in wage-setting, reducing the risk that higher goods inflation brought on by tariffs will spill over into services inflation."
3.21pm: Side hustle news
The UK is raising the threshold for filing a self-assessment tax form from £1,000 to £3,000, which it said will mean that up to 300,000 people selling stuff on eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), Depop or Vinted will not have to file a tax return.
Treasury Minister James Murray is proposing that, from 2029, people selling baked goods, driving a taxi or creating content online will still need to pay tax but will be able to fill out a new, simpler online form to declare cash earnings up to £3,000 in self-employed work.
"From selling old games to creating content on social media, we are changing the way HMRC works to make it easier for Brits to make the very most of their entrepreneurial spirit," Murray said.
"Taking hundreds of thousands of people out of filing tax returns means less time filling out forms and more time for them to grow their side-hustle."
3.05pm: Selling intensifies
The FTSE is down 1.3% now, with US stocks indices all in the red too.
The Dow Jones is down 1.2% and the S&P 0.65%, wiuth the Nasdaq losing 0.3% as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Tesla and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are all in the green thanks to "buy the dip" optimists.
The new tariffs on Canada have "sapped market confidence" says analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
"The tit-for-tat tariff policy that was started by Donald Trump, is bad news for equity market bulls. Back in November, the focus was on the positive impact from Trump’s economic policies, however, now they are reality his policies are negative for growth, at least in the short to medium term."
This is fueling recession fears, with a 25% chance of a US recession in the first quarter, according to Bloomberg’s recession monitor.
"The more tariffs that Trump imposes, and the longer they are in place, then the higher recession odds will become. This is a disaster for US stock markets," says Brooks.
2.42pm: New Canadian tariffs
Donald Trump is now planning to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium (or "aluminum") to 50% from tomorrow, in retaliation for 25% tariffs placed by Ontario on electricity it sends to northern US states.
Unless Canada drops its tariffs, such as on agricultural products, the US President warned in a social media post that he would also hike taxes on the car industry, "which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada".
Ontario premier Doug Ford said: "Until the threat of tariffs is gone for good, we won’t back down."
Saying that Canada relied on the US for "military protection", Trump also repeated his claim that he wants the country to become the 51st US state, which would "make all tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.
1.55pm: Mixed US open
US markets are mixed in early trading.
The S&P 500 is down four points, essentially flat, while the Dow Jones has fallen 0.6% largely due to Verizon (NYSE:VZ) dropping 7% and only a third of its 30 constituents being in positive territory.
The Nasdaq is up 0.5%, thanks to rebound gains for Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and others.
Small caps are positive too, with the Russell 2000 rising 0.4%.
The FTSE 100 has dived lower, down 0.9% now to 8,524, its lowest since late January.
12.45pm: FTSE hit by US read-across
Airlines, hotels and banks are heading the fallers on the FTSE 100 as we move into the afternoon.
British Airways owner IAG is down 4.8% after US airline group Delta slashed its first-quarter outlook due to weaker domestic demand, with Holiday Inn and Crown Plaza owner IHG down 3.1%.
UK banks are down in synch with US peers, which fell overnight.
Investors in Europe are generally taking a "wait and see" approach, says market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation. "What happens over the next couple of US sessions, and in particular the market reaction to today’s jobs number and tomorrow’s CPI update, seems likely to set the tone for the rest of this month."
The big question is whether markets have "corrected enough" for a recovery rally to form, he says.
"Or is this pullback from February’s highs simply the first leg of a more protracted sell-off? It’s a difficult call."
He says the decline of the US dollar is significant as technical analysis points to it "looking oversold", though the overall trend is bearish and the DXY index isn’t not far above the lows from last September.
Bitcoin managed to bounce back above $80,000, while ether continues to struggle.
"Crypto traders had such high hopes from a Trump presidency, and the regulatory environment is friendlier than under the Biden administration. But the changes have been less dramatic than the crypto bros hoped, and it looks as if the only way Bitcoin can get back above $100,000 is on a strong stock market rally," says Morrison.
12.10pm: Goldman cuts US growth forecast due to tariffs
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has joined Citi in taking a bearish view of the US.
Goldman’s head of equity trading says: "The market’s post-election sugar high has turned into a bit of a nasty hangover as the policy realities of Trump 2.0 begin to become clear."
In a separate note, the US bank has cut its forecast for US economic growth to 1.7% for 2025, down from a previous 2.4% estimate.
"This is our first below-consensus forecast in 2½ years," Goldman economists said, explaining the reason for the downgrade is not the recent data.
Instead, the reason is that the bank’s assumptions about Trump’s trade policy "have become considerably more adverse" and the White House now seems to be "managing expectations towards tariff-induced near-term economic weakness".
While Trump ended up softening the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico soon after implementation, Goldman expect the next few months to bring "a critical goods tariff, a global auto tariff, and a ’reciprocal’ tariff".
11.39am: Citi downgrades US stocks
US banking giant Citi has downgraded its stance on US stocks, saying "US exceptionalism is at least pausing".
Citi had previously made an overall downgrade on global equities from ’overweight’ to ’neutral’ but took this further today, also upgrading its stance on China.
"We had not fully implemented our view that US exceptionalism is at least pausing, but this has now become clearer."
Exceptionalism and tariffs may be at the centre of the conversation that Donald Trump will have later, as he holds a business round-table with CEOs at the White House today after his tariff policies triggered the Nasdaq’s worst daily losses in over three years.
Some of the bosses will include Wall Street’s banks, Bloomberg News reports.
11.25am: Is this the start of a major rotation from the US into emerging markets?
Are the recent market moves "the start of a major rotation" into emerging markets?
This is a note from UBS strategist Manik Narain, who observes that "faltering US confidence" and "upside risks materialising in European fiscal spend" have helped emerging markets stage a respectable rally in 2025, with 5% equity, 4.5% local debt, 2.7% credit, 2% median forex returns in the year-to-date.
"Now, rates have priced a material dent to US exceptionalism," he says, with the 10y gap between the US Treasury and German Bund having compressed and the EURUSD at its highest since October and November.
EM export lead indicators disagree with the recent uptick in the global manufacturing PMI, while credit growth, earnings momentum and tariff risk "don’t look consistent with an EM growth renaissance ahead".
"Parts of EM could certainly ’piggyback’ further off Europe’s improved outlook, but these are not the typical conditions in which we’d expect to see sustained EM outperformance."
However, he says EM "could outperform US" over the next two to three months, with China UBS’s preferred ’overweight’ among large markets.
"This is a micro call, not a macro renaissance. Outside of China, valuations aren’t cheap in absolute terms."
10.52am: Man Utd to build largest stadium in the UK
Manchester United Plc (NYSE:MANU) says it is aiming to build a "new 100,000-seat stadium", which would be the largest in the country, as part of a regeneration of Old Trafford.
The football club says this would tie in with the UK government’s "growth agenda", with 92,000 jobs and 17,000 new homes.
Co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe said: "Our current stadium has served us brilliantly for the past 115 years, but it has fallen behind the best arenas in world sport.
"By building next to the existing site, we will be able to preserve the essence of Old Trafford, while creating a truly state-of-the-art stadium that transforms the fan experience only footsteps from our historic home."
He said the government has "identified infrastructure investment as a strategic priority, particularly in the north of England, and we are proud to be supporting that mission with this project of national, as well as local, significance".
10.20am: Rotork impresses
Rotork PLC (LSE:ROR) shares are up 7% after what analyst Harry Philips (LON:0LNG) at Peel Hunt (LON:PEEL) called "one of the strongest sets of numbers in the current industrials reporting season".
The industrial engineer revenue was up 4.9% after accounting for the significant foreign exchange headwind, while adjusted operating margins widened 70bps and operating profits rose 12.8% to £178.4 million.
A £50 million buyback was announced.
Philips says 8.2% organic revenue growth compared to his 7% assumption, and is also reflected in the order book, which is up 6.1% after having been flat at the half year.
9.56am: Markets find a footing
"UK markets have managed to find some footing after yesterday’s global market selloff," says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown (LON:HRGV).
"Markets are jittery and volatility seems like the only certainty while the White House pushes hard to usher in a new era, seemingly happy for stock markets to be collateral damage."
He notes that Brent oil futures have climbed to $69.30 in early trading, despite concerns that US tariffs could hurt economic growth and reduce oil demand, while Russia’s deputy PM confirmed that OPEC+ plans to increase oil production in April but warned the move could be reversed.
Kathleen Brooks at XTB says points out Delta, the US airline, slashed its profit and sales forecasts on weaker domestic travel demand, sending its shares down 5% on Monday and a further 10% in the pre-market today, "which suggests that the sell off may not be over".
"If consumer stocks join the fray, then this could lead to a more dangerous phase of the US stock market sell off," she says, but adding that tech stocks are currently higher in the pre-market, with Tesla up 4%, Nvidia 2%.
"Overall, this is likely to be another volatile day for markets," says Brooks, noting that bonds are giving back some of Monday’s gains but US Treasury yields are falling, albeit at a slower rate than yesterday, with the 10-year back at 4.2%, close to its lowest level of the year so far.
The US dollar continues to weaken, with the DXY index at its lowest level since November.
"The precipitous decline in the dollar highlights how the FX market is different to the equity market. FX markets tend to grab onto one theme that persists for the long term. Thus, a weak dollar could be on the cards for some time," she says as the EUR/USD surges this morning back above $1.09.
9.20am: Wall Street decline deep and broad
More thoughts on the market movements, from Neil Wilson at TipRanks, after the S&P 500 lost 2.7% last night and the Nasdaq, having peaked at 20,204.58 in mid-December and dropped 4% yesterday to finish on 17,468.32 in the biggest daily drop since September 2022.
"Away from the headline losses of a single day (I’m quite long in the tooth and the biggest daily drop in less than three years is hardly the sort of thing that keeps me up at night), more than 500 stocks in the Russell 3,000 are now more than 50% below 52-week highs," says Wilson.
"The decline is deep and broad. The Vix shot to its highest since August.
"Everyone knew the market needed correcting at some point and acts surprised when it happens."
Tesla and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) fell 15% and 10%. "These are some examples of lofty valuations being the first to get shot - before the selloff, Palantir was trading at more than 50x next year’s sales, twice the highest multiple ever given to Tesla or Nvidia," Wilson adds.
In Europe, which has had a good run so far this year, the losses were less extreme, though the FTSE 100 fell to a one-month low and the CAC in Paris fell a similar amount.
"The question I guess is whether this falls into ‘healthy correction’ territory or panic time," wonders Wilson. "We had a big wobble in January on DeepSeek but some rotation and earnings saw a swift recovery for the broader market even as tech remained under pressure.
"This time is different? Certainly, the macro backdrop seems way more challenged today than even a month ago. We have tariffs as fact rather than theory, and we have some serious questions over the health of the US economy.
"Two key policy levers are being pulled and the American economy is not the beneficiary in the short term at least. One is tariffs, the other is DOGE. Spending cuts, or at least talked-about spending cuts, are exposing the underlying weakness in the US economy; that the ‘strength’ of the Biden economy was built entirely on spend, spend, spend economics.
"But it’s also the messaging. Everyone thought the stock market would be the one thing Trump would care about. The comments from Trump and his Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, indicated they are prepared to countenance some pain to get where they want to."
9am: FTSE 100 paddling in shallow water
The FTSE 100 just poked its head above water in recent minutes before dipping down again.
Helping the index are gains for housebuilders on the back of the Persimmon update (see below), with its shares up 4.2% now, and followed by Barratt Redrow (LON:RDW) PLC (LSE:BTRW), Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:LON:TW.) and Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LON:BKGH) (LSE:BKG), all rising over 3%.
Miners and oilers are also positive too, which is always a boost for the benchmark.
The FTSE 250 is up 111 points or 0.6% at 19,986.4, with engineer Rotork leading the way with a 7.7% gain after its results.
Mid-cap builders Bellway (LON:BWY), Vistry and Crest Nicholson (LON:CRST) are up over 5% apiece too.
In Europe, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 are both up 0.6%, while Spanish and Italian benchmarks are both slightly in the red.
8.53am: Nationwide says ’thank you’
Nationwide Building Society (LON:NBS) will distribute a one-off £50 payment to more than 12 million members as a gesture of appreciation for their support in last year’s £2.9 billion takeover of Virgin Money (LON:VMUK).
The deal, which was approved by regulators in July, established Nationwide as Britain’s only mutually owned full-service bank, strengthening its position in savings and mortgages against FTSE 100-listed players like Lloyds and NatWest (LON:NWG).
It’s a bit disingenuous for Nationwide to claim that customers supported the deal, as I know that some did not - and we will never know for sure as Nationwide didn’t even ask.
8.42am: Debs is back (baby)
On Boohoo’s renaming as Debenhams and trading update, analyst John Stevenson at Peel Hunt says revenues for the year to Feb 2025 of £1.2 billion came in roughly 9% behind his forecasts, with guidance for EBITDA of circa £40 million after a £40 million stock write-off, "suggesting broadly breakeven underlying EBITDA against our forecast of £12 million".
Net debt of £82 million is £13 million better than forecast, "highlighting progress on cost control", says the analyst.
"The Debenhams platform has been successful for boohoo, growing revenues at 30%-plus. Young fashion needs work, with the group also pushing towards relevant marketplace models here too."
Stevenson concludes: "We expect a long recovery ahead."
8.29am: Persimmon profits rebound
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) shares are up 3.5% after the housebuilder delivered a small beat to City forecasts for its 2024 calendar year results.
The FTSE 100-listed group delivered 10,664 homes in the year, up 7% of the prior year, with average selling prices 5% ahead at £268.5k.
Housing revenue increased 13% to £2.9 billion and underlying profit before tax 10% to £395 million, 3% above consensus.
The company declared a 60p dividend, in line with the prior year, as net cash ended the year at £258.6 million.
Analysts at Stifel say: "These are the sector’s first full-year results to show rising profits in this cycle."
8.11am: FTSE falls as airlines and banks weigh
The FTSE 100 has dropped 19 points or 0.2% to 8,581.4 in early trading, continuing the selling trend from yesterday as the futures market gets it wrong for the second day in a row.
Airlines, hotels and leisure are leading the fallers, with BA owner International Consolidated Airlines Group (LON:ICAG) SA (LSE:IAG) down 3.6% and easyJet PLC (LSE:LON:EZJ) down 2.7%, followed by Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC (LSE:NYSE:IHG), down 2.1%. Games Workship is down 2% too.
This followed US airline group Delta halving its first-quarter profit forecast, citing weaker domestic demand.
Banks and financials are also in the red, with Barclays (LON:BARC) falling 1.6%, followed by St James (LON:SJP)’s Place, Lloyds.
Investment trusts with lots of big US tech companies are hit too, including Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC (LSE:LON:SMT), F&C Investment Trust PLC (LSE:FCIT).
7.58am: Boohoo becomes Debenhams
Boohoo Group PLC (AIM:BOO) has rebranded as Debenhams Group, marking a strategic shift as the business pivots to a marketplace-led model.
The turnaround of Debenhams, acquired in 2021, has been "completed", with the online department store now the group’s most profitable division, it says.
The company aims to leverage this success across its wider portfolio, including "youth brands" like PrettyLittleThing and Boohoo, which are undergoing restructuring.
The group, which also announced Phil Ellis as its new CFO, said in a trading update that group revenue was down 16% year on year, though Debenhams delivered strong growth, underpinning the company’s future strategy.
7.45am: Explaining the market moves
The US session last night was saw stocks in "free fall", with the Nasdaq’s worst day since 2022, say analysts at Danske Bank (CSE:DANSKE).
"This was not a rotation into defensives or European shares, but a full-blown growth fear reaction from investors.
"Clearly, markets tested the Trump put. Or the Musk put for that matter, with Tesla leading the declines by dropping -15%, marking its worst day since 2020."
Overheard: The Tesla Chainsaw Massacre.[image or embed]
— George Takei (@georgetakei.bsky.social) March 10, 2025 at 5:41 PM
The so-called Magnificent Seven were all sharply lower, with declines in the ballpark of 2% to 5%, while cyclicals like banks and materials were hit as well.
"Unlike the last weeks, risk-off also spread to Europe, triggering a classic risk-off rotation leading cyclicals (banks, tech, industrials) to drop 2-3% while defensive stocks were higher."
Jim Reid, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), pointed out that the Mag-7 stocks even moved into bear market territory, having now shed more than -20% since peaking in December.
"I think the Deep Seek news was much bigger than people gave credit for after the initial attention calmed down," Reid says. "The epic valuations have also contributed... The massive and increasing capex required for AI has also gained more attention of late."
The small cap Russell 2000 also closed down 2.7% to its lowest level since last June and the S&P 500 growth index fell 3.8% in its worst day since September 2022, with investors seemingly more wary on the risks of a downturn after Trump’s comments over the weekend.
"Current losses for the S&P 500 (-8.62% from the peak) have now surpassed the moves last summer, when the index fell -8.49% from peak-to-trough. This now makes it the largest selloff for the S&P since 2023," says Reid.
"And unlike last summer, yesterday did see the S&P 500 close beneath its 200-day moving average, which is the first time that’s happened since 2023 as well."
As growth concerns mount, investors have "poured" into US Treasuries, he adds, with the 10yr yield falling 8.8bps to 4.21% and then trading down to 4.18% this morning, and the 2yr yield fell 11.6bps to 3.88% yesterday in the largest move since the shock last August.
"This has come as investors have dialled up the chance of Fed rate cuts again, pricing in 84bps by the December meeting as I type, with a +12.6bps increase yesterday followed by another +1.2bps overnight."
7.38am: Motor finance redress scheme proposed
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) says a redress scheme is the most likely way that consumers will be paid compensation if the current motor finance review, including a looming Supreme Court decision, finds that customers have lost out due to widespread failings by firms.
As those who’ve been following the review will know very well, motor finance lenders include Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LON:LLOY) and Close Brothers (F:CBRO) Group PLC (LSE:CBG).
The FCA said it will launch a consultation about an industry-wide redress scheme in this case.
"Under a redress scheme, firms would be responsible for determining whether customers have lost out due to the firm’s failings," the regulator says, arguing it would be better for consumers too.
7.24am: Retail sales slow, consumers cautuious
UK retail sales rose 1.1% year on year in February, according to a survey by the British Retail Consortium and KPMG, down from 2.6% growth in January and lagging the three-month average of 2.4%.
Food sales increased 2.3%, in line with the recent trend. Non-food sales were flat, with a slowdown from the three-month average growth of 2.5%.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: "While sales growth across non-food categories was generally muted, it was propped up by online purchases, particularly in computing and electronics.
"Jewellery, watches and fragrance sold well thanks to Valentine’s Day, reversing declines seen last year, and furniture also returned to growth.
"Fashion performed poorly due to the gloomy weather throughout the month, but retailers are hopeful the early March sunshine kickstarts spending on spring and summer wardrobes.”
Linda Ellett at KPMG said: “Consumers remain cautious with their spending and many are continuing to prioritise saving, travel and experiences.
"Nervousness about the economy is deferring other big ticket purchasing, but occasions and offers are still tempting shoppers into some impulsive spending."
7.16am: FTSE 100 set to rebound
The FTSE 100 is set to open higher on Tuesday, after sharp falls yesterday in both European and US stocks.
On the futures market, the London index has been called 20 points higher after tumbling 80 points to 8,600 the day before.
Overnight, Wall Street saw heavy losses in what was its worst day so far this year, with the Nasdaq tumbling 4%, the S&P 500 down 2.7% and the Dow Jones 2.1% as risk-off sentiment gripped markets, with the VIX volatility index climbing to the highest level since August last year.
Asian markets are mostly in red this morning, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.4% and the Hang Seng falling 0.6%, while only the domestic stocks in Shanghai trading slightly higher.
5am: What to watch on Tuesday
Persimmon faces mounting uncertainty ahead after already firming up a strong year just gone... Read more
It’s the first day of a week when several building and construction companies will report.
Contractors Kier and Costain are both reporting on Tuesday, along with construction industry supplier Genuit.
In Europe, German defence giant Rheinmetall (ETR:RHMG) will be in focus as one of the contractors that is seen as most likely to benefit from the huge rearmament mooted by various European figures in recent weeks.
Announcements due on 11 March:
Interims: Aptamer Group PLC, Craneware PLC, Kier Group (LON:KIE) PLC, Supermarket Income REIT PLC (LON:SUPR)
Finals: Costain Group PLC, Globaldata PLC, Domino’s Pizza Group (LON:DOM) PLC, Genuit Group PLC (LON:GENG), Maxcyte INC, Persimmon PLC, Rotork PLC, Spirax Group, STV Group PLC, Synthomer (LON:SYNTS) PLC, TP Icap Group PLC
AGMs: Benchmark Holdings PLC, Shoe Zone PLC (LON:SHOE)
Economic announcements: BRC Retail Sales (UK), JOLTS Job Openings (US)