- FTSE 100 up 118 points at 8,614
- Mood boosted as China open to tariff negotiations
- Shell jumps 3% on Q1 profits, buyback
- NatWest beats Q1 expectations
- US stocks leap after mixed jobs report
4.07pm: Blue-chips surge into long weekend
The FTSE 100 is surging into the bank holiday weekend, up 1.4%, with the FTSE 250 also climbing out of its earlier grump, up 0.6%
British Airways (LON:ICAG) owner IAG is the highest flyer, up 5.2%, followed by aerospace components maker Melrose at 5% (Rolls-Royce (LON:RR) is also up almost 2%), and then defence groups Babcock (LON:BAB) and BAE Systems (LON:BAES).
Airlines are up on both sides of the Atlantic as the potential for a China-US agreement on trade would boost economic hopes and therefore international travel.
As well as growing hopes of US-China trade talks, better-than-expected US jobs growth have also helped the wider market rally, says Axel Rudolph, analyst at IG.
This has propelled European stock indices to their fourth straight weekly gain, with the FTSE 100 on track for extend its winning run to an unprecedented 15 days.
"Signs of improving US-China trade relations helped the copper price regain most of this week’s losses," says Rudolph. "Even though the gold price traded slightly higher on Friday, it saw its second straight weekly loss as flight-to-safety trades unwind, apparently amid Chinese selling.
"Saudi Arabia opening its oil floodgates exacerbated selling with the oil price dropping close to 10% over the past couple of weeks."
The US jobs report has significance beyond the stock market rally, says Kathleen Brooks at XTB, with US interest rate expectations also being lowered.
" Next (LON:NXT) week the Fed will meet to decide interest rates. The stronger than expected labour market report has reduced already low odds that rates would be cut next week," says Brooks.
There is now a 3% chance of a rate cut from the Fed next Wednesday, with the odds of a rate cut in June also falling from 55% on Thursday to 40% today.
"The market had been expecting more than four rate cuts this year from the Fed this year, that has now been scaled back to 3.7 cuts in the aftermath of this payrolls report.
"It will be interesting to see how the Fed interprets this data, but they have said that they are data dependent, so we do not expect a dovish tone from Powell next week, which has the potential to ignite the ire of President Trump once again."
2.55pm: Stock markets up, everywhere
US stock markets strode higher in initial trading, with all the major indices rising over 1%.
Gains for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Meta and others helped offset falls for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) after earnings last night seemed to disappoint.
The FTSE and European indices continue to hold onto most of their gains.
2pm: Mixed US jobs report, stock futures jump, Trump calls for rate cut
The US jobs market slowed in the run-up to Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, the non-farm payrolls report showed.
Roughly 177,000 jobs were added in April, well above forecasts for 138,000.
However, the previous month’s NFP number was revised down to 185,000 from 228,000, with a two-month downward net revision of -58K.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, matching the consensus.
Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2%, a bit below the consensus forecast of 0.3%.
Following the release of official job numbers, US stock futures leapt higher, with S&P 500 futures up 1.2% and those for the Nasdaq and Dow Jones both up 1.1%.
President Trump also called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at next week’s meeting.
"Gasoline just broke $1.98 a gallon, lowest in years, groceries (and eggs!) down, energy down, mortgage rates down, employment strong," said Trump in a social media post.
He said the US economy is "only in a transition stage, just getting started" and with "no inflation, the Fed should lower its rate".
Market analyst Fawad Razaksada at City Index said: "The US dollar traded mixed shortly after the NFP was released, as risk-on sentiment remained the prevailing trend.
"As index futures rose further, commodity dollars extended their gains against the greenback, while the USD/JPY attempted to find support around the key 144.00 - 144.50 area.
"All told, it was a positive reaction to what essentially was a mixed NFP report overall."
1.25pm: US markets ’less anxious’ as NFP awaited
US futures are pointing to not-too-shabby open on Wall Street after China’s signalling of openness to US trade talks.
Dow Jones futures are up 0.5%, those for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are up close to 0.4%.
Traders are eying the NFP print due in a few minutes time, says market analyst Kenny Polcari of Slatestone Wealth.
While "algo" traders are disappointed with the Amazon and Apple earnings reports overnight, "I am not", he says, pointing to "strong earnings beats" and "tariff noise".
"US & China are ‘engaged’ – who will kiss who first?" he adds, highlighting improving sentiment, that is making markets feel "less anxious” but gaps remain.
"Expect the excitement to continue," he says.
12.40pm: M&S still battling cyber attack
Marks & Spencer boss Stuart Machin apologised for the disruption in the retailer’s stores but was not able to say when normal business would resume.
The company is "working day and night" to overcome the cyber attack that has temporarily sidelined its online orders since last Friday, with the attack having begun on the Easter weekend.
Last week M&S said it was dealing with a "cyber incident", with online orders paused.
With attacks on the Coop and Harrods this week, the National Cyber Security Centre has urged all retailers to be vigilant.
M&S shares are down 1.6%, having sunk 8% over the past two weeks.
The retailer is calculated to be facing around a £30 million hit to profits from the attack, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), with cyber insurance potentially not covering all of the impact if the incident runs on for much longer.
12.05pm: FTSE 100 keeps run going, mid-caps flat
The FTSE 100 is keeping the run going so far, up 0.8%, while the more domestically focused FTSE 250 is just below flat, down six points at 20,129.
Haleon PLC (LSE:LON:HLN, NYSE:HLN) is top of the blue-chip leaderboard, as analysts and investors react to its capital markets day.
Here’s Barclays (LON:BARC): "The CMD was a reminder of the quality of Haleon’s portfolio and the long consumer health growth runway, especially in Emerging Markets.
"The new upgraded financial algo if delivered would make Haleon a rare asset across the Global Staples space. However now for the hard part- delivery and execution against a tough macro."
Shell PLC (LSE:LON:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) is up 2.5% after its Q1 results earlier. UBS says adjusted EBITDA was 4% ahead of consensus expectations, "led by beats across the board" with underlying costs down 7% from the fourth quarter, leading to a 12% beat at the net income level with cash flow also above expectations.
Shareholder distributions "as expected".
Other risers include those that have large exposure to international trade or significant US risks, such as Melrose Industries (LON:MRON) PLC (LSE:MRO, OTC:MLSPF) and Rentokil Initial PLC (LSE:LON:RTO), up 3.7% and 2.6%.
Compass Group PLC (LSE:LON:CPG) is up 2.4% with a positive note from Jefferies this morning noting that the stock trades around 15% off the recent peak, "offering an attractive entry point" ahead of upcoming interims on 14 May.
Entain PLC (LSE:LON:ENT) is up 2% as the Ladbrokes owner is highlighted by analysts at Berenberg, who say the recent update showed momentum continuing to build and leaves the wider consensus "looking conservative".
11.02am: New UK crypto regulations examined
Restrictions could be placed on the use of credit cards to purchase digital currencies, the UK financial watchdog suggested as it explores further potential regulation of cryptocurrency markets.
Proposals were published by the Financial Conduct Authority this morning, seeking feedback on the regulation of cryptoasset trading platforms and other activities, including staking, lending, borrowing, and decentralised finance.
“Crypto is a growing industry. Currently largely unregulated," said David Geale, executive director of payments and digital finance at the regulator.
"We want to create a crypto regime that gives firms the clarity they need to safely innovate, while delivering appropriate levels of market integrity and consumer protection.
"Our aim is to drive sustainable, long-term growth of crypto in the UK. We’re asking whether we have got the balance right.”
10.30am: Next up, US jobs report
Tech earnings and China’s openness to get trade talks going have been the main drivers today, but April’s Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report in the US is the big event today, according to Saxo’s Neil Wilson.
He says investors should watch for signs of fast-forward in firing and a slowdown in hiring.
The consensus estimate is for the addition of 130,000 jobs in the US economy, with estimates ranging from +25k to +195k. March was +228k.
For the impact of the US tariffs, he says you’ll probably have to wait for next month.
The NFP report is out at 1.30pm.
10.15am: Tech earnings provide relief
Most major global tech firms have now reported first-quarter results, and UBS analysts say they’ve "largely beat estimates," giving investors room to "breathe a sigh of relief."
After Thursday’s US close, Microsoft and Meta posted strong earnings, while Apple and Amazon’s results were more mixed.
In a blog, UBS analysts noted, "Given our view that the earnings are consistent with the 3–5% manageable impact from tariffs we have been highlighting, we prudently trim our 2025 EPS growth forecast for global tech companies from 16% to 12%."
They still expect a continued recovery and "double-digit earnings growth in 2025" but warn against complacency.
UBS cautioned that "investors should not get carried away" due to potential short-term risks, like Section 232 semiconductor investigations and possible AI diffusion regulations.
9.10am: China lends a hand
China’s apparent willingness to negotiate on trade tariffs is credited for some of the positive sentiment on the markets today.
The world’s second-biggest economy says it’s "evaluating" proposals from the US to restart talks over Donald Trump’s big tariff push. Officials in Beijing confirmed that Washington has reached out recently through different channels to get negotiations going again.
This comes as concern grows that the ongoing trade fight between the world’s two biggest economies is dragging down global growth. The IMF has already trimmed its forecast for 2025, and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) is warning there’s a 60% chance of a US recession this year.
"China’s ostensible signal that it is willing to negotaite on tariffs on the US will likely be the overriding sentiment driver, though do also take note of Japan’s comments about its huge holding of US Treasuries being ’on the table’ in US trade talks," commented ADM ISI’s Marc Ostwald.
The FTSE 100 is now 63 points, or 0.75% up, at 8,559.74.
8.45am: Shell climbs on Q1 update
Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) now tops the FTSE 100 leaderboard with a 3% rise after announcing a $3.5 billion (£2.6 billion) share buyback as first-quarter profits came in stronger than expected. However, cash flow ebbed amid falling oil prices.
The oil giant reported adjusted earnings of $5.6 billion, up 52% from the preceding quarter and ahead of the average analyst forecast of $5 billion, but down 27% from the same period a year ago.
Cash flow from operating activities came in at $9.3 billion, which was below the consensus figure of $9.6 billion.
Mark Crouch, market analyst for eToro said: “Despite sizable losses across the energy sector, Shell smashed analysts’ expectations by over $1bn in Q1 as strict capital discipline, a hallmark of Shell, continues to drive strong shareholder returns and insulate the business from market shocks."
The Footsie is now 61 points, or 0.72% higher at 8,558.28.
8.30am: Harrods joins cyber attack list
The retail cyber attackers are clearly indiscriminate, adding Harrods to their list.
The upmarket London department store confirmed it’s been hit by a cyber-attack, making it the third big name in British retail to be targeted in recent weeks, following hits on Marks & Spencer and the Co-op.
“We recently experienced attempts to gain unauthorised access to some of our systems," the company said.
"Our seasoned IT security team immediately took proactive steps to keep systems safe and as a result we have restricted internet access at our sites today.”
8.15am: Strong open for blue chips
The pundits clearly got it right this morning, with the Footsie jumping more than a percent at the open before settling back a little.
At last glance, the blue-chip index was up 75 points, or about 0.9%, at 8,571.56.
Miners Antofagasta PLC (LSE:LON:ANTO) and Glencore PLC (LSE:LON:GLEN) are at the top of the leaderboard this morning, with both gaining more than 3%.
NatWest and Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) are also doing well on the back of their first-quarter earnings reports, gaining 3.4% and 1.9% respectively.
Pearson ’s shares are down 2.3% despite reassurances that it’s on track to meet FY25 guidance. Severn Trent PLC (LSE:LON:SVT) and United Utilities Group PLC (OTC:UUGRY) (LSE:UU.) join Pearson as the Footsie’s biggest losers this morning.
7.55am: Pearson says momentum is building
Pearson PLC (LSE:LON:PSON) is also out with some numbers this morning.
In a trading update, the learning group said it is on track to meet full-year guidance, with first-quarter performance matching expectations and stronger sales growth anticipated in the second half.
Group sales rose 1% on an underlying basis in Q1 2025, with all business units performing in line with forecasts. Higher Education led the way, with a 6% increase in sales, supported by AI-powered study tools, growth in digital subscriptions, and broader adoption of Inclusive Access products.
It also confirmed a £350 million share buyback is underway, with £65 million repurchased by the end of April. The company recovered £0.1 billion in State Aid during the quarter.
7.45am: NatWest beats expectations
NatWest Group PLC (LSE:LON:NWG) has also reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter profits and guided to the upper end of its targeted returns for the full year.
These are the first results since the UK government stopped being its largest shareholder
Attributable profit came in at £1.25 billion for the first three months of the year, virtually flat compared to the preceding quarter, but higher than the £1.06 billion consensus forecast. Pre-tax operating profits were £1.81 billion, up 21% and beating the average forecast of £1.56 billion.
Chief executive Paul Thwaite said the performance "demonstrates the positive momentum in our business as we deliver against clear strategic priorities, and we now expect to be at the upper end of our income and returns guidance for 2025".
7.30am: Standard Chartered delivers
Standard Chartered PLC (LSE:STAN) is out with results this morning. The global banking group has kicked off 2025 with a strong first quarter, as earnings and income moved higher across the board.
With a strong presence in Asia, it credited its cross-border capabilities "during uncertain times."
Operating income rose 7% at constant currency to $5.4 billion, with standout performances in Wealth Solutions, Global Markets, and Global Banking—all delivering double-digit growth. Underlying profit before tax climbed 12% to $2.3 billion, while earnings per share jumped 9.8 cents to 62.7 cents.
Guidance for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, with income growth expected to track toward the higher end of the 5-7% range through 2026 and capital returns set to continue.
“We delivered a strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, with earnings per share up 19%, driven by double-digit income growth in Wealth Solutions, Global Markets and Global Banking,” said CEO Bill Winters.
7.15am: Punters call the Footsie higher
The FTSE 100 is expected to gallop out of the opening gates as the week draws to a close following decent gains on Wall Street overnight, particularly for tech stocks.
London’s blue-chip index has been called 45 points higher on the futures market, building on recent gains. In a nail-biting finish, it closed less than 2 points higher at 8,496.80 yesterday.
US stocks had a better day, with the Dow Jones adding 0.2%, the S&P 500 gaining a solid 0.6% and the Nasdaq jumping 1.5% thanks to a rally in tech stocks.
Asian markets are also mostly higher this morning, with the Hang Seng up 1.3%, the Nikkei rising 1.2%, and the BSE Sensex moving 0.3% higher.
5am: What to watch on Friday
Wrapping up the week, there will be some important economic data, particularly EU inflation and the key US official jobs report – aka the non-farm payrolls.
In London corporate news, Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) is set to report first-quarter profits and cash flows with analysts and investors watching closely for signs of pressure on shareholder returns from weaker commodity prices.
NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) will report its first results since the financial crisis with the UK government no longer the bank’s largest shareholder, and with its shares fresh from hitting 14-year highs as conditions remains benign for UK lenders.
Even though Standard Chartered PLC (LSE:STAN) is heavily focused on Greater China, worries about the effects of US tariffs has not stopped its shares from trading around decade highs, fuelled by record income and buyback firepower.
Announcements due on 2 May:
Trading updates: NatWest Group, Pearson, Shell, Standard Chartered
Overseas earnings: Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM)
AGM: HSBC (LON:HSBA), Pearson, Pulsar Helium (TSXV:PLSR), Rotork (LON:ROR)
Economic announcements: Inflation (EU), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (EU), Unemployment (EU), CPI flash (EU), Non-Farm Payrolls (US), Unemployment (US), Average Hourly Earnings (US), Factory Orders (US)