- FTSE 100 up 5 points at 8,500
- Oil and gold prices fall, hitting commodities firms
- Lloyds profits come in slightly below forecasts
- Rolls-Royce (LON:RR) says it’s having a strong start to the year
4.15pm: Winning run could hit 14 days
The FTSE 100’s winning streak could be extended for another day, though there’s only a couple of points in it, so it could still be turned around in the final minutes.
Currently, all but five of the FTSE 100’s largest 20 stocks are in the red, with Shell (LON:SHEL), BP (LON:BP), Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) and BAE are down less than 0.5% so things could change quickly.
Oil prices have eased from previous lows, which has picked Shell and BP off their earlier slumps. Brent crude, which was close to breaking past $59 a barrel this morning, is now at $61.4, down around 0.5% on the day.
LSE and Lloyds are both down over 2% after their quarterly updates earlier. Lloyds was also catching some selling on expectations in some quarters that the Bank of England might cut rates faster in coming months.
AstraZeneca (LON:AZN) and GSK (LON:GSK) are also both down more than 1% having both delivered their own results earlier in the week.
M&S is bottom of the FTSE list as the fallout from its cyber attack continues, with the company saying that, as well as product availability being affected, it has also had to pul all online job postings from its website.
The retailer’s IT systems were hit by a ransomware attack almost two weeks ago, which has seen online orders paused since last Friday and the Metropolitan police called in to investigate the attack.
It also emerged yesterday that fellow grocer Co-op had also had to shut off some of its IT systems after an attempted hack, though stores were able to trade as usual.
Top of the blue-chip leaderboard is St James (LON:SJP)’s Place (not sure why), followed by Whitbread (LON:WTB) on cautious optimism and a share buyback, and housebuilder Persimmon (LON:PSN) after its trading update.
3.33pm: Do you get investment ideas from social media?
TikTok is the source of new investment ideas for 16% of investors aged between 18 and 34-year-olds, according to new research, with 16% also getting investment ideas from X, 18% from Reddit (NYSE:RDDT), 19% from Facebook (NASDAQ:META), with Instagram winning with 22%.
The research, carried out by Opinium for HL, comes just as a Treasury Committee session hearing yesterday that scammers using "influencing" techniques were targeting this younger demographic and raising the risk of fraud among those aged 19-40.
The survey was carried out among 2,000 investors last month.
"There are plenty of good actors in this space, offering sensible guidance from regulated people, but there are also a worrying number of people using this approach to defraud their victims," says Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown (LON:HRGV).
"If you are seeing this kind of content online, ask yourself whether your expert really is an expert," says Coles.
She says hh numbers of followers can be misleading too, as being good at social media "doesn’t say anything about their financial expertise".
2.48pm: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta drive Wall Street opening rally
US stocks are also on the charge, led by big gains for Microsoft and Meta on the back of their earnings last night.
The Nasdaq is up 2% in early trading, with the S&P 500 rising 1% and the Dow Jones 0.5%.
Microsoft has jumped 9.1% (adding almost $300 billion to its valuation to take it back over $3 trillion again) and Meta Platforms 6.3%.
Other risers include Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG), up around 4%, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) 3%, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) 2.9% and bitcoin investor MicroStrategy at roughly 2%.
2.24pm: Bitcoin rallying
Bitcoin is on the charge today (showing it is still often far from dislocated from stock markets) up from $93K to $96.5K over the past 24 hours, around its highest in over two months.
Simon Peters, crypto analyst at eToro says: "After consolidating around the $95,000 mark for the last week, bitcoin is breaking out today and is targeting the $100,000 level again."
After climbing above $96.1K, it was the highest price since late February, and now less than 15% from the $109,400 all-time high, he notes.
He feels the breakout was "on the cards", however, there is news helping the rally today, with the CEO of Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) saying the giant US broker is to start crypto spot trading with bitcoin and ethereum, ideally this year.
Strong rallies have been seen in bitcoin and other cryptos in the past month, Peters adds, "amid significantly large inflows into the spot bitcoin ETFs – price typically consolidates, building momentum for another move in the direction of the prevailing trend, in this case higher".
2.15pm: US jobless claims
US initial jobless claims rose to 241K in the week ending April 26, from 223K, above the consensus forecast of 223K.
Continuing claims leapt to 1,916K in the week ending April 19, from 1,833K, well above the consensus estimate of 1,865K.
Economists say the pick-up in initial claims is mostly due to the timing of spring recess for New York public schools, which ran from April 14 to 18, with support workers in the education sector in NY state can claim benefits for the spring break holidays.
1.01pm: BoE expected to slash rates this year by Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)
Morgan Stanley is another of the banks predicting that the BoE will cut interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25%.
The US bank’s chief UK economist Bruna Skarica says this cut is "in anticipation of a possible large-scale global growth hit" and expects the terms "gradual and careful" to be removed from the monetary policy committee’s guidance on rates "to leave itself space to accelerate cuts if needed".
Unlike other economists, Skarica expects this cut to be followed by back-to-back cuts through to November, slashing the base rate to 3.25%.
UK rates are seen bottoming out at 2.75% during the first half of 2026, though under more adverse global growth scenarios the economists say the Bank could feel the need to cut all the way down to 2%.
Skarica sees "quite elevated" chances of a bigger 50-basis-points rate cut in June or August, unless there is a swift resolution of trade tension between the US and its largest trading partners.
12.10 pm: Lloyds and oilers holding back FTSE
Falls for Lloyds Banking, BP, Shell and Marks & Spencer have been keeping the FTSE 100 from making headway on Thursday morning.
As we tick into the afternoon, the index has added just over six points before seeming to hit a wall at the 8,500 milestone.
The City view of the Lloyds results was that they were a touch below expectations.
The shortfall, which was mainly due to higher costs and bad loan provisions, has given the market pause, especially with banks under scrutiny for how they handle margin pressure and economic uncertainty.
According to UBS, pre-tax profit was around 4% shy of consensus. That was down to two main factors: Higher operating expenses and larger-than-expected impairments.
Looking away from London, European markets are mostly closed for May Day, while Wall Street stock futures are pointing to a tech-led rebound.
Nasdaq futures are up 1.7%, with S&P 500 futures up 1.2% and those for the Nasdaq up 0.8%.
Microsoft shares are up 9% premarket, with Meta up over 6%. Tesla’s are modestly higher after the company responded to a report that the board was looking to replace boss Elon Musk.
Earlier today, there was a media report erroneously claiming that the Tesla Board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search at the company.This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published).
The CEO of Tesla is…
— Tesla (@Tesla) May 1, 2025
11.05am: Dilemma from manufacturing sector
Looking at the manufacturing data from earlier, Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said the PMI surveys have a tendency to respond to shifts in sentiment rather than activity, which may be overstating the weakness.
However, he said global trade disruption and uncertainty from US tariff announcements have "clearly weighed on the sector, with survey respondents reporting a marked fall in demand from key export markets".
He added: "Reduced access to a key international market and a weaker world economy will hinder exports, while lingering uncertainty points to a period of more subdued domestic demand."
The survey also suggests companies are responding to employment cost increases from minimum wages and NICs by reducing headcount and increasing prices quite significantly, "posing a dilemma for the Bank of England, which will likely look to balance the pace of interest rate cuts with evidence that inflationary pressure is easing".
That said, Swannel said a cut in interest rates next week "appears almost certain".
10.40am: European stocks higher, FTSE held back by oil price fall
The US-Ukraine minerals deal "is positive from a peace deal perspective and probably risk-on overall for Europe", says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo.
France’s index is up 0.5% and Germany’s DAX is up 0.3% (CORRECTION: European markets are closed for the May Day holiday, those were yesterday’s moves), with the FTSE 100 just below flat, as the Ukraine deal also adds further pressure on oil prices.
Shell and BP are weighing on the London index, as Brent crude futures drop below $60 a barrel for th first time since the start of February 2021.
Putting his technical analysis hat on, Wilson said the FTSE 100 yesterday faced the "stern test" of the 50-DMA (daily moving average), having earlier cleared the 200-DMA.
"Slow and steady wins the race though – another gain today would be a 14-day win streak to match the January 2017 run...I think that’s the record."
10.14am: BoE preview from Barclays (LON:BARC)
Barclays expects the Bank of England’s MPC to cut interest rates to 4.25% at its May meeting next a week today, as well as revise down its inflation forecast.
"We think this will open the door to a June cut without explicitly referencing it, to retain optionality."
Barclays expects one member (Swati Dhingra) to vote for a larger 50bp cut.
"We expect guidance to shift to emphasise that the balance of risks have moved to a less inflationary outlook, even as market rates have eased, with more evidence of demand softening relative to supply."
The inflation forecast is predicted to be revised down to 2.0% on a one-year horizon, and to 1.7% at the two-year and three-year horizons.
"As well as lower inflation, we expect the updated forecast to show lower sequential growth in real GDP in 2025 from Q2 onwards."
9.40am: Manufacturers hit by slump in export demand
The UK’s manufacturing sector’s downturn continued last month, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey has said, but April’s PMI of 45.4 was better than the preliminary reading of 44, and up from 44.9 the month before.
"UK manufacturers faced a tough operating backdrop in April, with market uncertainties rising, client confidence retreating and cost pressures intensifying," the report says.
April saw further contractions in manufacturing output, new orders and exports, as well as a slump in business confidence to its lowest ebb since late 2022.
Domestic demand remained soft, but overseas demand was "especially weak", with new export business falling at the quickest pace for nearly five years, with demand from the US, Europe and mainland China all declining.
Elsewhere, Bank of England data shows UK mortgage approvals in March were down less than expected.
Approvals dipped to 64.31K in March from 65.1K in February, above the 64K expected.
9.28am: Blue-chips taking a breather
The FTSE is taking a bit of a breather from its recent winning streak in early trade, but, as market analyst Susannah Streeter at Hargreaves Lansdown points out, this week the index has "had a tendency to power higher after a faltering start".
"The blue-chip index has been on its best run in more than eight years, as investors eye trade deals on the table with the US and its trading partners and encouraging corporate results buoy sentiment."
The US has also announced a minerals deal with Ukraine, with the frosty scenes in the Oval Office from earlier in the year replaced by warmer relations between the two countries.
"There are hopes that this is a significant step towards a peace deal with Russia," says Streeter.
Also, traders are talking about US talks with China, after a social media account linked to Chinese state media earlier this week said the US has reached out to discuss tariffs.
Amid an easing of geopolitical tensions, demand for safe-haven assets has dipped back, with gold prices down for the third session in a row, hitting their lowest level in two weeks of $3,235 per oz.
Oil prices are also lower, which is hitting Footsie heavyweights Shell and BP.
9.10am: Meta and Microsoft done, Apple and Amazon to come
It’s so busy in London this morning there’s barely been enough time to look across to the US, but futures are pointing to a positive session later, after both Microsoft and Meta posted stronger-than-expected earnings after last night’s close.
Microsoft’s cloud revenue grew by a third last quarter and capital investment was down for the first time in a while.
Meta however raised its full-year spending plans to $64-72 billion from $60-65 billion.
"That’s exactly what AI investors wanted to hear," says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
Meta shares are up 6% in premarket trading and Microsoft is up 8%.
Apple and Amazon report after the bell today and will need to convince investors they can also weather US tariffs, says Ozkardeskaya.
"Apple has already announced plans to move some production from China to India and to the US. Trump backed off his plan to tax smartphones, after warnings that US-made iPhones could cost up to $3000.
"Still, Apple remains one of the most tariff-exposed Big Tech names, given its complex global supply chain and lagging AI progress," she adds.
Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL) are down 1.5% premarket after a US federal judge ruled that the company violated a court order that required the iPhone maker to allow greater competition for app downloads and payment methods in its App Store. A similar tussle has been going on with the EU.
Amazon is also highly exposed to tariffs and will likely see its e-commerce revenue pressured by trade issues.
Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that 18% of products on Amazon are imported from China, and around 60% of third-party sellers have ‘some China exposure’ that could impact ad spend.
8.57am: Whitbread up on ’mixed bag’ results
The market has taken a glass-half-full view of Whitbread PLC’s (LSE:WTB) prelims, with shares in the Premier Inn owner up 4% in early trading.
Investors are responding positively to signs that trading isn’t quite as soft as feared and to news of a further £250 million share buyback.
Adjusted pre-tax profit for the year to February 27 came in at £483 million, just shy of expectations, and earnings per share slipped 6% to 195p.
Greg Johnson at Shore Capital said the results were a "mixed bag", with PBT 1-2% below consensus estimates.
But current trading with revPAR down 1% in the last 7 weeks, "is an increased outperformance relative to the market and may be a touch better than feared, with forward bookings said to be ahead of last year".
8.48am: Clarkson profit warning
Clarkson PLC (LSE:LON:CKN) shares are sinking again, down 12% to 2,890p and hitting a 14-month low earlier, after a profit warning from the shipping services group.
The FTSE 250-listed group has cut its full-year profit guidance due to the effects of global trade tensions and currency headwinds.
Having already warned alongside annual results in mid-March that regional conflicts and trade tensions were "creating uncertainty" and hitting freight rates and asset values, Clarkson’s fresh update noted that uncertainty has escalated, with US dollar spot negotiations in its broking arm running 7% lower than anticipated at the time of its results.
The profit downgrade also reflects the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, in which the majority of its revenues are earned.
8.31am: National Grid (LON:NG) investors slightly spooked by CEO succession
Shares in National Grid PLC (LSE:NG.) are down 1% after it announced the retirement of longstanding chief executive John Pettigrew, and appointed a first-timer.
Zoë Yujnovich, former Shell gas and upstream director, has been appointed to replace him, in her first role as group CEO.
However, she has plenty of experience at FTSE 100 companies, having been on Shell’s executive committee in her previous role, and before that was a divisional CEO at Rio Tinto, heading its Canadian iron ore business; and was recently appointed non-executive director at Unilever (LON:ULVR).
Group chair Paula Reynolds says Yujnovich is "highly regarded" in the energy sector and "will arrive with a notable track record of delivering complicated, large scale capital projects in complex political environments".
8.12am: FTSE starts in the red
The FTSE 100 has dropped 15 points in initial trading to 8,480.24.
Lloyds is down 2% on the back of its first-quarter update, but there are also larger falls for BP, while Centrica (LON:CNA) and Glencore (LON:GLEN) are down as their shares go ex-dividend.
Housebuilder Persimmon is down 2.3% after its own trading update, even though it says it remains on track for full-year targets.
Rolls-Royce is one of the top risers, up 3.3%, after reporting a strong start to the year.
7.59am: M&S calls the cops
Last night, it was reported that Marks and Spencer Group PLC (LSE:LON:MKS) has called on the Met Police to investigate the cyber attack that has started to affect the operations of its stores, with the retailer unable to accept online orders for a sixth day.
The Met’s cyber crime unit and the National Crime Agency have been called in, the Mail reported, following a ransomware attack said to be from a gang known as Scattered Spider and made up of UK and US teenagers.
The Met Police said inquiries continued to take place, but added that no arrests had been made so far.
With the cyber attack going for close to two weeks, the disruption has led to "pockets of limited availability in some stores", the company said yesterday, with reports of empty shelves in food branches.
7.51am: Rolls also backs outlook
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.) said it enjoyed a "strong" start to 2025 as it continued with the strategic transformation under CEO Tufan Erginbilgic, with plans in place to mitigate the effect of US tariffs.
In a statement ahead of the engine maker’s annual shareholder meeting, Erginbilgic expressed increased confidence in meeting full-year guidance of £2.7-2.9 billion of underlying operating profit and similar levels of free cash flow.
"Our transformation of Rolls-Royce is progressing strongly and we continue to expand the earnings and cash potential of the business," he said.
7.35am: Lloyds profits slight miss vs forecasts
Top line from Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LON:LLOY) is that guidance has not changed.
The first-quarter results have net interest income at £3.29 billion, which is a slight beat to the consensus forecast of £3.25 billion.
Statutory pre-tax profit of £1.52 billion is a slight miss, with the average forecast looking for £1.54 billion.
An impairment charge of £309 million was taken, compared to £160 million in Q4 of last year and £57 million in Q1, which included a £100 million adjustment to "address downside risks to the base case related to the potential impact from US tariff policies announced at the start of April".
7.15am: Strong start for FTSE 100 predicted
The FTSE 100 is predicted to come in hot on Thursday, the start of the new month and with the results coming thick and fast.
London’s blue-chip index has been called 55 points higher on the futures market to further extend its winning run, which currently stands at 13 days after yesterday closed 31.4 points higher at 8,494.85.
US stocks turned things around overnight from a bad start to a respectable finish, with the S&P 500 ending 0.15% higher, the Dow Jones climbing 0.35% and the Nasdaq finishing less than 0.1% in the red.
Asian markets are mixed this morning, with the Nikkei on the up but others lower and Chinese and Indian markets closed for a 1 May public holiday.
5am: What to watch on Thursday 1 May
As we move into May (don’t mow your lawns until at least next month, people), the new month brings a new round of economic data, with today’s UK figures on the manufacturing sector and bank lending.
Shares in Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) have risen by a third since the start of the year and trading around decade highs, bouncing back from each dip as investors question whether they should be, given the global recession fears triggered by US tariffs.
Not dissimilarly, London Stock Exchange Group PLC (LSE:LON:LSEG) shares hit an all-time high in early February and were not far off that level in April, with one analyst recently highlighting the group’s compelling combination of steady recurring revenue, improving profitability and potential valuation upside.
Premier Inn owner Whitbread PLC (LSE:WTB) offers a contrast, with its shares down 15% since the start of the year and almost a third lower than highs early last year, though some analysts see sun through the clouds of the tourism sector.
After the US session is over, Apple’s fiscal second quarter earnings will be pored over for management commentary about how the company is navigating new US tariffs...read more
Amazon’s outlook will be in focus given tariff effects and recent pelters slung from the White House, while Mastercard (NYSE:MA) and weight-loss opponents Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and McDonald’s will also be reporting earnings before the opening bell.
Announcements due:
Trading updates: Endeavour Mining, Hiscox (LON:HSX), Lancashire, Lloyds, London Stock Exchange Group, Morgan Sindall, Persimmon
Finals: Clean Power Hydrogen, Keystone Law Group, Whitbread
Overseas earnings: Amazon, Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), Apple, Block, Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), Cameco, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Rio Platforms
AGM: AIB Group, Alliance Witan, Clarkson, Direct Line (LON:DLGD) Insurance Group, Drax Group (LON:DRX), Howden Joinery Group, Johnson Service Group, Kerry Group, London Stock Exchange Group, Pershing Square (LON:PSHP) Holdings, Persimmon, Reach, Rolls Royce Holdings, Sig (LON:SHI), SigmaRoc, Synthomer (LON:SYNTS)
Economic announcements: Local Elections (UK), BoE Consumer Credit (UK), Manufacturing PMI (UK, US), Mortgage Approvals (UK), Initial Jobless Claims (US), ISM Manufacturing PMI (US)
Ex-dividends to reduce the FTSE 100 by: 2.29 points (Glencore, Centrica)