FTSE 100 Live: European stocks surge on Trump tariff pause, but Wall Street slumps

• FTSE 100 soars 252 points to 7,931
• Global markets rally after Trump announces 90-day tariff pause
• China 84% tariffs on US start today, US tariffs on China now 125%
• EU presses pause on its countermeasures
• Tesco (LON:TSCO) announces buyback but warns profits to fall this year

4.10pm: FTSE gains fading but still a big rally

The FTSE 100's gains were fading a little as we enter the final half hour of trading on Thursday and the index is on course to end the session up 3.3% today, but just below the 8,000 milestone.

London's mid-cap index is up 3.6%, meanwhile.

Across on the Continent, the DAX is up 5.5% and CAC 4.75%. The euro is up 2% versus the dollar and the GBP/USD is up 1.1%.

On Wall Street, after a massive rally yesterday, the S&P is down 3.4%, the Nasdaq has dropped 4.1% and the Dow 2.8%.

London's blue-chip leaderboard is topped by private equity investor 3i (LON:III) Group PLC, up 9.2%, with sector peer Intermediate Capital Group (LON:ICGIN) PLC not far behind.

Lender Barclays PLC (NYSE:BCS), which broke cover with the first sub-4% mortgage among its big six rivals earlier, is next, up over 8% but this is more likely to reflect tariffs and shifting bond and swap rates.

Miners Anglo American (LON:AAL) PLC and Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) PLC are up 8.8% and 6.4%.

Leading the fallers is Tesco PLC (OTC:TSCDY), down 4.9% after warning that profits this year would be lower than last year.

Analysts said this showed the UK's largest supermarket is "up for a fight", with shares in rival Sainsbury 's (LON:SBRY) falling 3.2%, while M&S climbed out of the red, with its shares up 0.8% currently.

Chemicals group Croda (LON:CRDA) International, life insurer Aviva (LON:AV) rounded off those in the red, while consumer goods group Reckitt Benckiser (LON:RKT) and fellow defensives, tobacco companies BAT (LON:BATS) and Imperial Brands PLC (LON:IMB), were the 'lowest risers'.

Market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at City Index sums up the state of play in the markets.

Yesterday’s sharp rally in US stocks, which Europe and Asia were playing catch-up with today, "was driven mainly by relief".

"Yes, there is a pause on those reciprocal levies for 90 days, but the 10% universal rate is still there. What’s more, tariffs on Chinese imports are now at a staggering 125%."

China is weighing its next move, with top officials expected to meet Thursday to discuss fresh economic stimulus.

"For now, though, the US-China trade uncertainty is holding back excessive risk-taking, while it also remains unclear what sort of trade deals, if any, the US will strike with its other large trading partners, including the European Union."

He said the record-breaking US rally yesterday was "more a function of poor liquidity and frantic short covering than actual buying" and he reckons it is "possible that traders may put more pressure on Trump by selling bonds again and lift yields to uncomfortable levels".

"So, don’t be surprised if traders quickly back off those risk-on moves."

The fact that oil is down 4% and the dollar is also sliding again "shows worries about global growth -- especially China’s -- are gnawing away at demand expectations".

3.35pm: Barclays (LON:BARC) announces mortgage rates below 4%

Barclays has cut rates on some mortgages to below 4%, the lender said today.

It was the first of the 'big six' banks to cut mortgages following the market turmoil sparked by Donald Trump's US tariffs.

Earlier this week, Coventry Building Society launched a two-year product under the 4% threshold yesterday.

Barclays said from Friday its 2-year and 5-year fixed deals, currently priced at 4.11% and 4.12% for buyers with large deposits, will have their rate cut to 3.99%.

3.24pm: Bond market moves today reassuring, says BoE's Breeden

Bank of England rate-setter Sarah Breeden said today that the recent bond market stress originated in the US before spilling over into the UK, but that underlying vulnerabilities remain.

"We need to stay vigilant," she said on a MNI Livestreamed Connect event.

Breeden welcomed a partial easing of pressures following today’s market moves following Trump's 90-day tariff delay, which she said had helped relieve some of the strain seen yesterday.

Yields on UK 10-year gilts, for example, which had spiked back above 4.8% yesterday, on a par with January's highs, were down to 4.658% currently.

On monetary policy, Breeden said the lack of a pre-set path in the Bank’s latest minutes reflects the uncertain economic environment.

She added that exchange rate movements are a key uncertainty in her inflation outlook and expressed concern about how it might evolve.

She also clarified that she is not placing more weight on inflationary over deflationary effects from tariffs.

"I think its too early to call the overall impact on inflation for the UK and hence the appropriate monetary policy response at this stage."

On some of the economic impact on the UK, she said: "Expenditure switching by US consumers away from UK goods, combined with weaker global demand due to potential counter tariffs and supply chain disruptions would be expected to weigh on UK activity."

Asked about today's postponement of long-dated BoE gilt auction, she said it was "a technical decision, not a signal of monetary policy stance".

2.45pm: Wall Street stocks drop back again

More volatility as US stocks have plunged at the open, with the Dow Jones losing over 900 points or 2.2%.

The S&P 500 has slumped back 2.6% and the Nasdaq has so far given back 3% of yesterday's rally.

As a reminder, the trio leapt 8%, 9.5% and 12% respectively yesterday after Trump accepted a 90-day tariff retrieve.

The FTSE is little moved so far, maybe traders and algo's have learnt to build a slight delay into their reactions? (Joke!)

1.58pm: More money for Fawlty Towers, Only Fools and Horses and The Office, say MPs

ITV (LON:ITV) shares were up strongly this morning but have sunk into the red.

This is despite calls from the influential Culture, Media and Sport Committee of MPs calling for a tax on streaming services to protect British TV content.

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Disney+, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Prime and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) TV+ should be made to pay 5% of their UK subscriber revenue into a cultural fund, the group said, with these funds being shared out to help finance shows with a specific interest to British audiences.

In the report, the MPs recommend measures, including targeted tax breaks, "to halt the decline of domestic production of culturally distinct British film and programmes, which has failed to keep pace with the headline-grabbing growth of big box office productions financed and controlled from outside the UK".

It is "time for streamers to put their money where their mouth is", the report stated.

Committee chair Caroline Dinenage said: "While streamers like Netflix and Amazon have proved a valuable addition for the industry and economy, unless the Government urgently intervenes to rebalance the playing field, for every ‘Adolescence’ adding to the national conversation, there will be countless distinctly British stories that never make it to our screens."

1.37pm: US CPI softer than expected

US inflation eased last month more than had been forecast.

The consumer price index for March was up 2.4% on the year earlier, compared to inflation of 2.8% in February, lower than the expected 2.5%.

On a monthly basis, US CPI was up 0.1%, softer than the 0.2% rise the month before and the 0.3% expected.

The dollar has fallen following this, with the pound up 1% to $1.2942 and the euro rising 1.6% to $1.1117.

The FTSE's gain has dropped below 300.

12.17pm: US futures in the red

US futures are down, with all three of the major indices predicted to see at least 1% knocked off their huge gains from yesterday.

Dow Jones futures are pointing to a loss of around 460 points, down 1.15%, while those for the S&P 500 show a 1.6% deficit and Nasdaq futures indicate a 1.95% drop.

Overnight, the trio had soared close to 8%, 9.5% and over 12%, led by double-digit percent gains from the tech giants including Apple, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Tesla.

This led to the S&P gaining an incredible $4 trillion in market cap terms.

Meanwhile, back in London, the Bank of England has amended the schedule for its gilt sales.

It has rescheduled a long maturity auction to the following quarter, citing recent market volatility.

The auction on 14 April will be for short instead of long maturity bonds.

11.53am: European markets remain in rally mode

Coming up to midday, the FTSE 100 is still bullish, up 4.6% at just over 8,030, with the FTSE 250 is rallying harder, up 4.9%.

Across the Channel, the French and German stock benchmarks are up 5.6% and 5.7%.

The European Union today pressed hold on its countermeasures on US tariffs after Washington announced a 90-day pause on 'reciprocal' tariffs.

The EU Commission’s Ursula von der Leyen warned that if negotiations with Washington "are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in".

I welcome President Trump’s announcement to pause reciprocal tariffs. It’s an important step towards stabilizing the global economy.

Clear, predictable conditions are essential for trade and supply chains to function.

Tariffs are taxes that only hurt businesses and consumers.…

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) April 10, 2025

11.07am: Gold up, oil down

Commodities markets have seen an "interesting" divergence between gold and oil today, points out analyst Josh Mahony at Scope Markets.

Yesterday’s move in crude oil -- where Brent sank to a new four-year low of $59 a barrel and then popped back up to $66 -- has today given way to a more cautious approach.

"Despite the avoidance of heightened tariffs against some of the hardest hit countries, global demand concerns remain hugely prevalent as China and the US break trade ties," says Mahony.

"Demand for crude looks to be an ongoing issue, and the joint push for higher production in OPEC and the US provides the basis for ongoing consternation in the energy space."

Meanwhile, gold has leapt back up to $3,120, only just over 1% away from the all-time dollar highs of early this month.

"China has been a huge stockpiler of gold over the years, and the breakdown in trade with the US will likely provide fresh support for the metal," says Mahony.

He says Trump’s decision to implement a 90-day reprieve is a large degree based on the surge in US bond yields, "highlighting how the dumping of US treasuries can be used by the likes of China as a tool in this ongoing trade war."

Bessent yday - *BESSENT DENIES THE BOND MARKET IMPACTED TARIFF CHANGE

Hassett today - *HASSETT: BOND MARKET CONTRIBUTED AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT

— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) April 10, 2025

Also on precious metals, in the monthly report from Sharps Pixley, it is noted that silver is "well placed to outperform gold, but is failing to do so".

The gold/silver ratio has climbed to 1:96, but "subdued industrial demand" is blamed.

This is "likely to suffer more in this trade war environment is one reason why silver is underperforming, and the absence of central bank interest in silver is another."

10.35am: No time for complacency

Market volatility is likely to remain elevated in the weeks ahead, UBS says, "as investors assess rapidly shifting tariff developments and consider the potential implications for growth, inflation, central bank policy, and financial markets".

The Swiss bank said Trump has "opened the door" to potential tariff deals for many trading partners, consistent with an "escalate to deescalate" strategy toward much of the world.

"At the same time, we remain mindful of the greater-than-expected escalation between the US and China, the precise details of the latest US policy shift have yet to be announced, and it is not certain that the proposed pause will hold."

The escalation between the US and China "could dramatically impact trade between the world's two largest economies", UBS says.

Kathleen Brooks at XTB says the trade war between China and the US remains "in full swing", with tariff levels between the two largest global economies never higher and this is weighing on the oil price, which after a rally overnight, is lower once again on Thursday.

Brent crude is down 2.6% to $63.70 per barrel.

Reports suggest that China could announce stimulus measures to boost its economy, though nothing has been forthcoming so far.

Bond traders remain skeptical of Trump, Brooks adds, with bond market volatility as measured by BoA’s MOVE index having backed away from recent highs but remaining elevated.

UK bonds are outperforming on Thursday, she notes, after yields surged sharply in the UK on Wednesday, with 30-year Gilt yields erasing about half of Wednesday’s move but still elevated and close to January’s highs.

"The bond market is worth watching closely today," Brooks adds. "A pause on tariffs is not a panacea.

"All imports to the US will still face a 10% tariff rate, China and the US have imposed laughable tariffs on each other and are engaged in a full-blown trade war that shows no signs of slowing down.

"There is no way of knowing how the next 90 days will go, and which countries will be able to negotiate ‘good’ tariff deals with team Trump. This complicates the outlook for markets and could limit the upside for equities."

9.56am: Former PM Brown calls for globally coordinated solution against US tariffs

Former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown has called for an “economic coalition of the willing” to respond to US tariffs by coordinating economic policies such as cutting interest rates and lowering trade barriers with Europe.

Brown, who is said to be close to Kier Starmer, wrote in the Guardian: "We need an economic coalition of the willing: like-minded global leaders who believe that, in an interdependent world, we have to coordinate economic policies across continents if we are to safeguard jobs and living standards."

The former PM, who was chancellor in the lead up to the credit crunch and took over in 2007 and led the country into and out of the global financial crisis, added: "As I learned in the financial crisis of 2008, global problems require globally coordinated solutions."

He said the "world is being brought to its knees by one economy, outside which live 96% of the population, who produce 84% of the world’s manufactured goods".

"We also have to remind China that if it is to present itself as a champion of free trade, it is in its interests to focus more on expanding domestic consumption than flooding the world’s markets with cut-price goods it cannot now sell in the US."

9.28am: Tesco 'up for the fight'

On Tesco's results statement and guidance, Shore Capital analyst Clive Black says the the UK's largest supermarket is "getting the knuckle-duster out".

He says the group "executed very well in FY25, marginally beating our retail and headline EBIT expectations", with shareholders gaining a 13.2% increase in dividend and a sizeable buyback.

"The new UK sector dynamic in the trade is Asda with its Roll Back return and whilst there is no price war at present, Tesco is giving the market a clear statement that it is up for a fight," he says.

9am: Views on the tariff pause

Some financial experts are giving their tuppenceworth on why Donald Trump offered the tariff pause.

The last week has seen "an economic Twilight Zone hit the US economy" after the US President unveiled his tariff slate last week, says tech analyst Dan Ives at Wedbush.

His view is that Trump's hand was forced by the bond market and rising 10-year yield.

"This has created real damage to the corporate spending mentality," he said, with an example being that he is now cutting his estimates for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s June and 2026 estimates and lowering his price target from $550 to $475.

The “Trump put” is a

- 50bps disorderly swing in US 10Y yields

- Spike in real rates

- Forced liquidation in USTs (blowout in swap spreads)

- Falling longer-dated breakevens

In other words, all the classic bond market signs that “something is breaking”$USD pic.twitter.com/o3Gezi5Wpw

— Viraj Patel (@VPatelFX) April 10, 2025

Macro (BCBA:BMAm) strategists Peter Sidorov and Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) note Trump's suggestion that the decision to delay tariffs had been made yesterday morning as people had been "a little bit afraid".

They add: "And while Commerce Secretary Lutnick later denied that the move came in response to market pressure, Trump’s comments suggested some sensitivity to the market stress, as he said that 'The bond market is very tricky' and 'I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy'."

Sidorov points to Trump saying he would look at tariff exemptions for certain companies, but also signaled further sectoral tariffs, notably on pharma.

He added that the "historic rally" on Wall Street overnight still left the S&P 500 down 3.77% from its level prior to the reciprocal tariff announcements on April 2.

"And other assets have seen less of a recovery, with 10yr Treasury yields +20bps higher and US HY credit spreads +92bps wider.

"So while there has been understandable relief as evidence of a Trump put reemerged following the extreme market conditions that we highlighted yesterday morning, the genie is still out of the bottle on policy unpredictability."

A 10% minimum universal tariff still represents the largest tariff increase in decades and heightened trade uncertainty is "likely to linger, with limited visibility on what kind of deals the US would find acceptable", he adds.

"Perhaps most crucially, we are currently still on course for a disorderly economic decoupling between the world’s two largest economies, with no immediate signs of either US or China backing down."

8.40am: Anglo in talks with Peabody to try and complete coal sale after mine explosion

Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) has put out a statement to say it "continues to work" with Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) to try and rescue the US$3.8 billion sale of its steelmaking coal business after the US company said it was "reviewing all options" following an explosion at one of the Queensland mines.

The underground coal mine was closed after it was evacuated after what was called a "small, contained ignition event", with Peabody saying earlier this week it was "in conversation with Anglo American to better understand the impacts of the event".

Anglo noted Peabody's missive and said it was working with the buyer to try and satisfy the remaining conditions in the definitive sale agreements signed in November to try and complete the transaction.

The FTSE 100-listed company said it is also "making progress", working with experts and the Queensland safety regulator to look at restarting mining operations at Moranbah North.

8.24am: European stocks rallying hard

The FTSE 's initial exuberance has softened, but only slightly; it's still up 5.4%.

London's mid-caps are also romping higher, with the FTSE 250 index jumping over 1,000 points or 5.6%.

Top of the FTSE 350 leaderboard is investment company Bridgepoint, up 17%, followed by Barclays and Watches Of Switzerland at 15% and Carnival (NYSE:CCL) at 14%.

Tech investors Allianz (ETR:ALVG) Technology Trust, Polar Capital Technology (LON:PCT) Trust and Scottish Mortgage (LON:SMT) are all up between 10% and 13%.

Across on the Continent, the DAX is up 8.1% in Frankfurt, while in Paris the CAC has jumped 6.4%, while in Milan and Madrid the local benchmarks are up 7.8% and 6.6%.

The Euro Stoxx is up 7.1% with Computacenter (LON:CCC) top of the leaderboard with a 23% gain, followed by Barclays, and with Carnival and Bridgepoint not far behind.

8.09am: FTSE off to an incredible flier

Wow: the FTSE just started with a massive jump of over 460 points.

It rocketed 6.1% higher to 8,148, erasing all the losses from this week to reflect relief over the 90-day pause announced on US tariffs.

Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) is top riser initially, up 19%, followed by Melrose Industries (LON:MRON) PLC (LSE:MRO, OTC:MLSPF), up 16.3%.

JD Sports, Rolls-Royce (LON:RR), Pershing Square (LON:PSHP), Intermediate Capital, Polar Capital Technology and Antofagasta are all up over 10% too.

In the red are just four companies, Tesco, Sainsbury's, M&S and British Airways (LON:ICAG) owner IAG.

7.50am: Short and in-line from National Grid (LON:NG)

National Grid PLC (LSE:NG.) said its performance for the past year to March is "in line" with guidance provided at its interims, on a constant currency basis.

In a pre-close update, the power network operator said its final results next month will be followed on the same day by an investor event providing a "deep dive" on the delivery of its major capital projects in the UK and US.

7.34am: Tesco buyback on offer, but profits set to drop

Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) has unveiled a £1.45 billion share buyback alongside its preliminary results, but said profits are likely to fall this year.

The UK’s largest supermarket reported 10.6% growth in underlying profit for the past year to £3.13 billion, up 10.6% and ahead of the £3.08 billion analyst consensus.

Its outlook suggested profits could decline up to almost 14% amidst a “further increase in the competitive intensity of the UK market” in the last few months, likely to be a reference to Asda’s turnaround in recent months.

Chief executive Ken Murphy said: "Building on our strong financial performance, robust balance sheet and positive momentum, we are setting ourselves up for the year ahead with the flexibility to continue to win in a highly competitive market."

7.15am: The 'art of the deal' in Trump's 90-day tariff delay

For those who had switched off the news yesterday evening, Donald Trump said the US will pause most tariffs for 90 days and temporarily lower reciprocal trade duties to 10%.

However, he sharply increased tariffs on China to 125%, citing Beijing’s “lack of respect” for global markets.

US stocks went gangbusters, with the Nasdaq flying over 12% higher, with gains of 15% for Apple, 10% for Microsoft, 19% for Nvidia, 14% for Meta and 22% for Tesla.

Earlier, Trump said in a social media post: "this is a great time to buy".

Those who did made a pretty penny.

Trump later told the media yesterday that he announced the 90-day pause as people were getting "a little bit afraid".

He said the 90-day pause and 125% raise on China could both be "temporary".

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: "This was his strategy all along, and that you might even say that he goaded China into a bad position, they responded."

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the media, "Clearly you missed the art of the deal" - a reference to Trump's 1987 book.

Trump critic and former White House ethics lawyer Richard Painter said: “He’s loving this, this control over markets, but he better be careful.”

He said securities law prohibits trading on insider information or helping others do so.

7.13am: FTSE to set off like a rocket

The FTSE 100 is expected to skyrocket on Thursday, playing catch-up with Wall Street, where a mega rally took place last night after Donald Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause.

London's blue-chip index has been called up 400 points on the futures market, which would take it back to roughly where it finished last week.

Yesterday the FTSE lost 231 points to close at 7,679.5 and over the past five trading days has lost 929 points.

Overnight, the Dow Jones jumped 7.9% points, which was bested by a 9.5% leap for the S&P 500 and a 12.2% surge for the Nasdaq.

Asian markets are also getting their rally on, with Japan's Nikkei jumping 8.6% this morning and Singapore's index up 5.2%.

However, China was not only excluded from Trump's levy let-off but has seen the 'reciprocal' tariff hiked to 125%, though the Hang Seng is up a lesser 2.9% and the smaller cap Shanghai Composite up 1.2%.

5am: What to watch on Thursday

Tesco shares hit a seven-month low in the wake of a bullish update from rival Asda, but have been fighting back in the run-up to results as some spot a buying opportunity.

The UK's largest supermarket had an excellent Christmas and indications are that 2025 trading has continued in the same vein, said analysts at Third Bridge.

Any cautious guidance from Tesco about the year ahead "will be down to cost pressures like wages and National Insurance, not underlying weakness", they added, with industry data indicating sales volumes remain resilient.

"While Asda’s renewed price aggression has certainly rattled market sentiment, our experts believe the response to Tesco’s position was overly bearish. Tesco’s pricing is already highly competitive."

Elsewhere, the financial market fallout from the US tariffs is certain to continue.

US consumer price inflation will be of some interest to traders, though with the expected price rises incoming from the tariffs, this number might be a bit moot.

In the UK, the housing market will get some attention as surveyors's body RICS shares its monthly poll.

Announcements due on 10 April:

Finals: Brave Bison Group (LON:BBSN) Plc, Hvivo Plc, Inspecs Group Plc, Tesco Plc

Overseas earnings: CarMax Inc (NYSE:KMX), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co

Economic announcements: RICS Housing Market Survey (UK), Consumer Price Index (US), Continuing Claims (US), Initial Jobless Claims (US)

Ex-dividends to reduce the FTSE 100 by: 12.36 (mostly from 5.25 for Lloyds Banking Group (LON:LLOY), 3.42 for Reckitt Benckiser and 2.61 for Aviva, also Howden, St James’s Place, Croda, F&C Inv Trust)

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