Credit Agricole shares rise after strong Q4 results beat analyst expectations

Published 05/02/2025, 10:22
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Credit Agricole SA (EPA:CAGR) shares rose on Wednesday after the bank reported results that exceeded analysts' expectations for Q4 2024.

The net profit came in at €1.69 billion, marking a 28% beat compared to the consensus estimate of €1.32 billion and a 22% beat over Barclays (LON:BARC)' forecast of €1.39 billion. 

The strong performance was driven in part by an exceptionally high revenue figure from the Corporate Center, which benefited from a €294 million revaluation of the BAMI stake. 

“We think these are a good set of results, … but questions on guidance (which is missing) are likely to dominate the call in our view,” said analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) in a note

However, even when excluding this one-off factor, the bank’s net profit still surpassed expectations by 9%, driven by solid contributions from Asset Gathering, SFS, and Corporate & Investment Banking. Revenue for the quarter also topped consensus estimates by 9%, reaching €7.09 billion.

“What's more, SAS Rue La Boetie intends to buy up to €500mn of shares, subject to a 65% limit to CASA's capital - while small, this is an additional marginal positive in our view,” Morgan Stanley added.

The reported results were a mixed bag across divisions. Asset Gathering delivered a strong performance, with net profits of €695 million, exceeding both consensus and Barclays' forecasts. 

Large Customers also saw a solid performance, with net profit of €512 million, driven by gains in Capital Markets & Investment Banking as well as Financing. 

In contrast, Retail Banking, particularly in France and international markets, failed to meet expectations. 

The Corporate Center, boosted by the revaluation of BAMI, reported a net profit of €18 million, reversing the loss forecasted by analysts. 

Meanwhile, provisions were higher than expected, particularly in SFS, where one-off provisions for model revisions and legal matters weighed on performance.

From a capital and distribution perspective, Credit Agricole reported a CET1 ratio of 11.7%, which was in line with expectations and above its 11% target. 

The bank also announced a dividend of €1.10 per share, slightly above analyst consensus of €1.07, marking a payout ratio of 50%. 

In addition, Regional Banks disclosed plans to buy up to €500 million worth of CASA shares by the end of Q3 2025, which could offer support for the stock.

Despite the mixed performance across divisions, Credit Agricole is well-positioned, with an underlying return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 14% for 2024, exceeding its medium-term target of over 12%. The bank also reported a solid underlying net profit of €7.2 billion, well above its 2025 goal of €6 billion. 

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