Investing.com -- Compass Group (LON:CPG) on Thursday reported its first-quarter organic sales growth of 9.2%, surpassing consensus expectations of 8.8%.
Within this, net new business was estimated at approximately 4.6%, just short of Barclays (LON:BARC)’ 5% forecast, while like-for-like pricing was noted to be slightly above 3%, aligning with expectations. Volume growth was estimated at around 1.5%.
“Consensus seems to be that US exposure is very desirable post the Trump election and Compass could benefit from a number of new policy initiatives,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a note
Despite the stronger-than-expected Q1 performance, Compass has maintained its full-year guidance of OSG above 7.5%, while Barclays continues to forecast a more optimistic 8.5% growth compared to the consensus of 8.1%.
The company also reiterated expectations for high single-digit EBIT growth, with analysts’ consensus at 9.5%.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) expects Compass shares to rally after opening 2% lower, despite a strong trading update and generally positive commentary from management.
The brokerage highlighted strong net new contract momentum, noting that while Q1’s 4.6% net new contract sales contribution is a slight slowdown from Q4’s 5.1%, the company remains confident in delivering approximately 4.5% at H1.
This would mark the fourth consecutive year of meeting its 4-5% net new target, a significant improvement from the 3% seen before Covid.
The annual revenue opportunity reached a record $3.6 billion (+9% YoY, 8.5% of sales), while retention improved to 96.2% in H2, implying continued strong growth.
There are no signs of a broader slowdown, with the dip in Europe’s organic sales from 12% in Q4 to 8.4% in Q1 attributed to contract phasing rather than volume weakness.
The company expects organic sales to accelerate through the year as contract wins shift from a predominantly US focus in Q1 to more international expansion going forward.
Compass remains confident about volume growth, continuing to deliver like-for-like volume growth above 1%, a significant improvement from the near-zero levels seen pre-Covid.
While return-to-office trends are delivering lower incremental gains, participation rates and per capita spending remain strong, particularly in the sports and leisure segment, where self-service kiosks and other technology-driven efficiencies are driving improvements.
The company has also made clear its priority on capital expenditure and M&A over buybacks, reaffirming its position as a growth-oriented business.
The company is currently assessing acquisition opportunities, which could extend throughout the year, making a near-term buyback announcement unlikely at the May H1 results. Morgan Stanley currently models a $750 million buyback but sees M&A taking precedence.
Forecast changes following the results are minimal. Slightly more adverse FX assumptions (-1.2% to EBIT vs. -0.8% prior) and tweaks to regional organic sales expectations leave the group’s OSG outlook unchanged at 8.1% for FY25 and 6.1% for FY26.
“However, macro risks remain across the remaining 1/3rd of the group’s revenues, which could limit upside to organic forecasts for FY25, and we currently see the stock as broadly fairly valued vs. peers and the wider sector in this context,” RBC added
Margin assumptions have been slightly revised upward (+17bps in FY25 and +14bps in FY26). Morgan Stanley raises its FY25 constant currency EBIT growth estimate from 9.5% to 9.7%, or 10.6% when adjusted for net M&A and disposals. However, EPS forecasts remain essentially unchanged due to currency effects.
Compass trades at 13.5x and 12.3x estimated EV/EBITDA for calendar years 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Barclays and Morgan Stanley both maintain an Overweight rating, with Morgan Stanley reaffirming a £29 price target.
If the company continues to execute on its growth strategy, valuation multiples could expand over the next 12 to 18 months, offering additional upside.