Investing.com -- Bernstein analysts have adjusted their outlook on European airline stocks, upgrading Lufthansa while downgrading International Airlines Group (LON:ICAG) (IAG).
The brokerage cited valuation discrepancies and strategic positioning in the transatlantic market as key factors influencing their latest assessment.
IAG has been a strong performer in recent months, with its stock soaring by 115% over the last six months.
The company has consistently delivered solid financial results, backed by efficient execution, strategic share buybacks, and a dominant position in the lucrative North Atlantic aviation market.
However, with IAG now trading at 5.3x 2026 EV/EBIT, Bernstein believes the stock is fairly priced, prompting a downgrade to “market-perform” with a target price of £3.50.
In contrast, Lufthansa presents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the same transatlantic market at a lower valuation.
The German carrier, which suffered a €450 million earnings hit in H1 2024 due to labor strikes, is expected to benefit from improved operations in 2025.
Adjusting for the strike impact, Bernstein estimates Lufthansa’s 2024 EBIT at €2.1 billion and projects €2.3 billion for 2025, 7% above consensus.
Additionally, lower effective fuel prices are expected to drive a 17% EBIT growth in 2026. Given these factors, Bernstein has upgraded Lufthansa to “outperform” with a target price of €8.
The North Atlantic route remains the strongest market for European airlines, characterized by a disciplined three-player oligopoly where 80% of capacity is controlled by joint ventures. Capacity growth is projected at only 4% in summer 2025, supporting pricing power.
Lufthansa and IAG have nearly identical exposure to this market, with 46% and 47% of their long-haul capacity, respectively.
Lufthansa’s financial outlook is further strengthened by its maintenance and cargo divisions. Lufthansa Technik, its high-margin maintenance business, is expected to generate €0.8 billion in EBIT in 2025, with peer valuations ranging between 13x and 27x EV/EBIT. Lufthansa Cargo is also positioned for gradual recovery as airfreight demand stabilizes.
While IAG remains a high-quality airline with strong fundamentals, its stock valuation leaves limited room for further upside. Lufthansa, by contrast, offers a discounted entry point into the transatlantic market with a stronger earnings recovery trajectory.